The American dilemma

There is no end in sight for America’s longest war, and both the Trump and the Afghan administrations face yet another year of being shredded on the diffuse battlefield where the narrative is controlled ever more tightly by the Taliban (assorted) and the Islamic State — smaller but also assorted. Kabul in the last week has been bombed into a pile of dismembered bodies and overflowing hospitals. There is no reason to suspect that the carnage is going to diminish any time soon. Anywhere between 35 and 45 per cent of the country is under insurgent control. The Afghan National Army (ANA) was described by ‘Politico’ journal as “rag-tag” which is likely a fair analysis as it haemorrhages men and equipment by the day. The civilian government controls little other than the desks it sits behind and America is labouring under the delusion that it is going to defeat the forces of darkness ranged against it.

There are now reports that US President Trump is weighing up whether to send yet more cannon fodder to Afghanistan to support the ANA and American troops already there to counter the surge in attacks. All previous attempts to professionalise the Afghan forces have failed to a greater or lesser extent. A thousand US troops are a drop in the ocean with all the utility of a chocolate bicycle. It is reported that Americans have had to shorten their training period prior to deploying to train those Afghans it is trying to turn into an effective fighting force that does not defect that the drop of a tribal loyalty.

With the fighting season about to kick in and with elections in July for parliamentary and district seats, the Taliban at least are unequivocal — they have no interest in talks with the Americans or their fellow countrymen. The insurgents whatever flag they march under have never been defeated on the battlefield. They have taken heavy losses to be sure but there is a steady stream of new recruits. This rag-tag army has fought America and its allies to a military stalemate. The Americans may have the watches but the Taliban have the time.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 31^st, 2018.

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