Quelling unrest in Iran

From the profile of the average demonstrator taking part in the wide protests in Iran, it would appear that they are mostly young and disaffected with the revolutionary elite and their lifestyle. To his credit, President Hassan Rowhani seems to have understood their dilemma as well as that of the government — for the moment. It is somewhat of a pragmatic assessment on the part of Rowhani that the protesters are unhappy about a whole gamut of issues and not just the economy. The challenge for him and others in the administration, however, is to find ways to stop the protests permanently and quell the unrest without coming down hard on the mainly youthful protesters. It has taken some time for Rowhani to evolve such a strategy that advocates the lifting of restrictions on social media and the like.

At the same time, the Iranian president’s acknowledgement that the demonstrators have economic, political and social demands is a big concession. It remains to be seen whether the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other influential clerics will accept the existing generation gap between the elite and the disaffected youth representatives who are spearheading the unprecedented protests. Nor is it clear whether the curbs introduced on social media use will eventually be eased or lifted despite what Rowhani has said. The clerics led by Ayatollah Khamenei, hold a wide sway over the state’s affairs and are unlikely to surrender tamely to the whims of the protesters. They brook little tolerance for dissent. The deputy head of the judiciary has signalled, for instance, that all ringleaders of the protests would be punished and possibly face capital punishment.

In the final analysis, it would be Rowhani’s pragmatism against Khamenei’s conservatism. Of course, the upper hand is held by Khamenei who by virtue of his near-absolute power could railroad any government plans to punish the 1,000-odd detained protesters.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 10^th, 2018.

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