The biting begins

Pakistan and America have continued the war of words in the last 24 hours, with the Americans now formally announcing that $900 million in security assistance will be suspended until they see the ‘do more’ mantra actioned. The decision was announced by the US State Department and will have come as no surprise to the Pakistan government which will have certainly been forewarned by Secretary of State Tillerson during his recent visit to Islamabad. Specifically more has to be done to counter the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. Just how much aid is to be suspended is not known precisely but it would all be military and no civilian aid is to be curtailed. Funding would derive from both the state and defence departments. With the gloves now off it must be noted that none of the monies earmarked for coalition support funding in the 2017 fiscal year has been paid to Pakistan — what you never had you do not miss.

What is going to happen next potentially is going to hurt America more than it hurts Pakistan. Though rarely mentioned, the US flies men and materiel through Pakistani airspace and trucks up considerable volumes of supplies and equipment from Karachi port to Afghanistan. Pakistan could block both those points of access and there would be an immediate effect. It would not be the first time this has happened, and the Americans had to create what is called ‘The Northern Route’ to supply their forces in Afghanistan. This is very complex to negotiate and ruinously expensive.

American frustration is rising, much encouraged by a tweet-happy president. Failing to honour pre-existing agreements is going to inconvenience Pakistan but is not going to significantly damage an already damaged relationship. As far as border security is concerned Pakistan is funding itself to build its own wall — and rather more effectively and quickly than President Trump is doing on his own southern borders. Military supplies can be sourced other than from the US, and as we have minimal trade with America sanctions this will not bite hard either. Your call President Trump.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 6^th, 2018.

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