Summit agreements

It is impossible to avoid Chinese regional activity that is connected to the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is but a small part. The OBOR project passes through two continents and several areas of instability along the way, with Pakistan and Afghanistan being two. Both countries are vital links in the OBOR chain and China has a large vested interest in there being peaceful relations between them that will feed through to a placid security environment. Pakistan has entered a period of relative stability with terrorism trending downwards over the last two years, whilst Afghanistan is still very much in flux with the Taliban holding or controlling as much as two-fifths of the country. Alongside that there is a festering border conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan that produces regular casualties and stokes the climate of distrust between the two.

Thus it makes geopolitical sense for China to step in and make an attempt at playing the honest broker. This is a road littered with the burned-out hulks of every similar initiative that has gone before. The first China-Afghanistan-Pakistan foreign ministerial dialogue has been conducted in Beijing and China has declared it a success, likewise the other participants. Eight points of discussion were laid out, broad-brushstroke platitudes for the most part that are the bland carapace of modern diplomacy. It is unlikely that the atmosphere was as bland behind closed doors as it was in the closing statements, and China has a habit of blunt speaking when it comes up against mercurial and often intractable obstacles to its monolithic advance. With un-evolved tribalism the dominant political paradigm in Afghanistan and elective feudalism the norm in Pakistan bringing Maoist fundamentals to the table may seem perverse of the Chinese. Probably not. American engagement in Afghanistan is waning as it retreats into insularity; and India is manoeuvering to make a flanking move on Pakistan in Afghanistan. Kashmir is a walk-around issue for the Chinese and can be safely cordoned off. Can China pull off a trick that every other conjuror has failed at? We would categorise that as ‘a definite maybe.’

 

Published in The Express Tribune, December 29^th, 2017.

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