NATO-led force expects big spike in Afghan violence, May 1

Taliban-led insurgents pushing back against perceived coalition gains, say senior military officials.

KABUL: The NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan is expecting a major spike in violence, including suicide bombings, across the country over the next week as Taliban-led insurgents push back against perceived coalition gains, senior military officials said on Friday.

Washington and commanders of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have trumpeted successes against a growing insurgency since 30,000 extra U.S. troops were sent to Afghanistan last year in an attempt to reverse losses before the start of a gradual troop withdrawal from July.

Senior commanders have long anticipated a spike in violence with the arrival of the traditional spring and summer "fighting season", although the usual winter lull was not seen as U.S-led forces pressed their attack against insurgents, particularly in the Taliban's southern heartland.

Senior commanders said recent intelligence reporting indicated that the Taliban, supported by the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani network and other insurgents, were planning a series of major attacks across Afghanistan from Sunday.

Two senior coalition commanders said they anticipated the campaign of violence would last about a week.

"The enemy can generate indiscriminate violence but he can't succeed," one of the coalition commanders told Reuters. "We're expecting a big spike in violence over the next week."

Violence across Afghanistan hit record levels in 2010, with civilian and military casualties the worst since U.S-backed Afghan forces toppled the Taliban government in late 2001.

Military commanders interviewed by Reuters were not sure why May 1 had been chosen by the Taliban to launch their renewed offensive.

Major security changes

The anticipated Taliban campaign would not change the coalition's counterinsurgency strategy put in place last year by U.S General David Petraeus, the commander of the 150,000 U.S. and ISAF troops in Afghanistan, they said.

U.S. officials said this week that Petraeus would return to Washington by September to take over as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

In a major security shake-up, it was also announced that diplomatic heavyweight Ryan Crocker would replace Karl Eikenberry as Washington's ambassador in Afghanistan.

Western ambassadors in Kabul have described the military and diplomatic reshuffle as a shift of emphasis away from the military "surge" that began last year towards a political solution as NATO-led forces prepare to withdraw.

Under a programme agreed at a NATO summit last year, ISAF will begin handing security responsibility to Afghan forces in several areas from July. The programme will end with the withdrawal of all foreign combat troops by the end of 2014.

NATO-led military commanders briefed Afghan government officials and Western diplomats about the expected spike in violence over the past few days.

"These incidents can't derail the transition process but, at the same time, it shows the fragility of the situation," one senior Kabul-based Western diplomat told Reuters.

Another NATO military commander said they expected the Taliban to try and regain ground lost to ISAF and Afghan forces since the troop "surge" kicked in.

"We're tracking credible intelligence that senior Taliban leaders, backed by the Haqqani network, plan to conduct attacks throughout Afghanistan from the end of April," he said. "They're attempting to regain momentum after the progress by the coalition over the last year."

Both senior coalition commanders said the Taliban offensive would likely include ambushes, suicide bombings and attacks against high-profile targets in the capital, Kabul, and other major cities including Kandahar and Lashkar Gah in the south, in the north and in Herat in the west.

The attacks, they said, would most likely be concentrated in the east, near Afghanistan's long and often-porous border with Pakistan, where Taliban fighters have long sheltered in safe havens and from where they often launch attacks.

"It's intended to cast doubt on the progress of the coalition over the past year," one of the commanders said. "Their intent is nationwide."