America stirs

To say the very least the endless tension and low-level conflict that exist between Pakistan and India is a cause of frustration to both China and America. Both powers have interests in the region that are deep and long term. For the Chinese it is primarily the developments associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is but a part of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) enterprise. The Americans have an interest in CPEC as well — largely in the negative — but a close interest in outcomes in the near to medium term in Afghanistan and the part that both Pakistan and India play in that.



Now, in a reversal of the American non-engagement policy with Indo-Pak conflicts, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly raised the issue with both countries during his recent swing through the region. The last year has seen a string of fatal cross-border firing incidents, but there has been a reduction in tensions since the Tillerson visit. Trade across the Line of Control (LoC) has been resumed after a suspension of four months. Pakistan has allowed a meeting between convicted Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav and his wife on ‘humanitarian grounds.’

It is unwise and too early to read much into these straws in the wind, encouraging as they may be. The crux of the matter for the Americans is Afghanistan. Once again they have failed to win a war in a distant land and are stuck with making the best of an orderly retreat. The American administration is struggling to put meat on the bones of a road map for Afghanistan, a road map that has all the disadvantages of being drafted in Washington rather than Kabul and without the Taliban at the table.



Afghanistan is working on its own relationship with India with a new import route via the Iranian port of Chabahar that was inaugurated in the last week with a shipment of Indian grain arriving. Pakistan is now bypassed to all intents and purposes, and outflanked; and India has never been open to third-party intervention in Kashmir. That said even straws in the wind are better than nothing.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 14^th, 2017.

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