China-India row far from settled after disengagement

Published: August 31, 2017
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Will India commit another 'Himalayan blunder' like it did in 1962?. PHOTO: AFP

Will India commit another 'Himalayan blunder' like it did in 1962?. PHOTO: AFP

Will India commit another 'Himalayan blunder' like it did in 1962?. PHOTO: AFP The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan. The views expressed here are his own

Will India commit another “Himalayan blunder” like it did in 1962? A potential clash between nuclear-armed China and India has been brewing for months in Doklam, a remote area of the Himalayas, on the China-Bhutan border. As in 1962, India moved its troops into this disputed area with the same arrogance and reckless disdain for Chinese claims, forcing Beijing to “teach India a lesson”. Is history about to be repeated in this latest China-India standoff?

In a temporary reprieve, both sides announced on 28 August, an agreement to “disengage”, with India pulling back its troops. This “face-saving” understanding, however, does not resolve their dispute which will continue to simmer and may boil over at any time.

The irony is that in this instance, the dispute is not even with India — it is between China and Bhutan, which they have been trying to resolve through dialogue, a process that reportedly was near amicable settlement. But, citing a potential threat to its “chicken-neck”, the area that connects mainland India with its northeastern States, India moved its troops within a few meters of Chinese positions where China is constructing a road on its side of the border. Following the recent agreement on disengagement these troops have been pulled back. However, the verbal exchanges between the two sides continue to be increasingly bellicose and even a small incident can spark off a conflict.

India says troops ‘disengaging’ after border stand-off with China

This standoff needs to be perceived in its geo-strategic context. At the heart of the problem is India’s long-standing ambition of becoming a global power or at least a regional hegemon. Though having struggled against British imperialism to gain independence at home, successive Indian leaders have persisted with the same British imperialist policies externally. This “awakened giant” in pursuing its “tryst with destiny”, to quote Prime Minister Jahawarlal Nehru, has ended up with hostility towards virtually all its neighbours. It has occupied Kashmir and Sikkim, gone to war with Pakistan and China, promoted separatism in East Pakistan and Sri Lanka and has effectively occupied Bhutan as well as parts of Nepal. The Indira Gandhi doctrine, like America’s Monroe doctrine, is also an imperialist construct that controls the foreign relations and domestic policies of its smaller neighbours. While India has lingering territorial disputes with Pakistan, China, Nepal and Bangladesh, by contrast, China has peacefully resolved colonial era differences with neighbouring Pakistan and Nepal, but, despite trying for 70 years, not with India. This fact speaks for itself.

The increasing post-Cold War rivalry between a declining America and a rising China has prompted the US to build up India as a counter-weight to contain China as part of its “pivot to Asia” strategy. This has further emboldened India to chart an aggressive course in the region, especially against Pakistan and China. With American encouragement and material assistance, India has been strengthening its conventional and strategic forces, which include nuclear-capable long-range missiles, a ballistic missile defence system, a blue water navy with nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear weapons and is pursuing the capability of fighting wars with China and Pakistan simultaneously, as claimed by Indian army chief General Rawat.

China may initiate ‘limited war’ with India

With its nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean, India has become a key part of American-Japanese efforts to threaten Chinese shipping in the crucial Malacca Straits apart from challenging Chinese claims in the South China Sea. With American instigation, India has also entered into strategic partnerships with Australia and Vietnam, countries that are part of Washington’s anti-China orbit. It has also opposed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on the spurious grounds that it traverses through “Indian territory”. For this reason, it did not attend the One Belt, One Road summit in Beijing recently. India has also become more blatant in provoking China over Tibet by giving a greater profile to the Dalai Lama, who for decades has been based in India. Thrusting itself into a colonial era territorial dispute between China and a third country like Bhutan, is the latest Indian move to challenge Beijing. No doubt Washington will be pleased with its surrogate’s China baiting.

But India is playing with fire. It is one thing to jump on the American band-wagon against China to benefit from Washington’s consequent largesse. It is quite another ball-game altogether to directly provoke China. This is not the China of 1962 which was weaker and isolated. Today China is an economic and military power with a global outreach. If the China of the ‘60s could give India a drubbing that shook its very foundations, today’s China is a much more formidable force, a juggernaut that India will not be able to withstand.

Indians would also do well to remember that America has always been an unreliable ally. It will make the right noises but not put itself in harm’s way. The examples of Georgia and Ukraine are clear enough. Having encouraged resistance to Russia in these countries, Washington did not come to their aid when Moscow pushed back militarily. It would be wise, therefore, for India not to push China too far, otherwise it will be caught high and dry.

India would be better advised to temper its ambitions and seek negotiated solutions to its disputes with China and other neighbours, including Pakistan. Seeking hegemony over nuclear-weapon powers, is a fool’s errand.

From a strategic perspective, this China-India stand-off is symptomatic of the wider impact that the Indo-US strategic partnership has had on South Asia. With American backing, India is becoming increasingly aggressive and bellicose even with larger neighbours like China. Not surprisingly, it is also on a collision course with Pakistan. The dialogue option with both countries to resolve disputes has been virtually abandoned by the Modi government. Washington bears much of the responsibility for these dangerous trends in a neighbourhood that includes three nuclear-weapon states. The US needs to act with greater responsibility and restrain its Indian client. But President Trump has handed a blank cheque to Modi in Asia. Such is the American desperation to contain China.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 31st, 2017.

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Reader Comments (19)

  • Jackie
    Aug 31, 2017 - 11:33AM

    Dont worry. Be happy.Recommend

  • Feroz
    Aug 31, 2017 - 11:45AM

    Mature nations resolve differences in mature ways using the tool of diplomacy. They do not allow differences turn into disputes nor do they condone use of terror proxies. Basic lesson in diplomacy some countries have yet to learn.Recommend

  • Satwin Bara`
    Aug 31, 2017 - 11:55AM

    Nothing BUT rant to please the master.Recommend

  • PrakashG
    Aug 31, 2017 - 12:15PM

    Good; now go back to whatever international conspiracy fictional stuff that you were reading.Recommend

  • Sennakot
    Aug 31, 2017 - 12:44PM

    Why Hindus are thinking too much of themselves after centuries of as slaves to Moslems and then British. Playing with fire is much smaller a description. Bhutan is a sovereign country. What is Indian Army doing there? If US needs support they have chosen wrong slaves.Recommend

  • Navin
    Aug 31, 2017 - 12:49PM

    Please resolve your differences with US, lest you might just get declared as a terrorist state. Don’t worry about India. Maybe you are scared of both India and the US.Recommend

  • AD
    Aug 31, 2017 - 12:50PM

    China knew it is not it’s territory, otherwise there would have been a war . Remember how India forced and kicked you out from Kargil.Recommend

  • Shakti
    Aug 31, 2017 - 1:48PM

    At the very worst, India and China will throw stones at each other. The two nations will never go to war in the future. Recommend

  • ABCD
    Aug 31, 2017 - 2:08PM

    The writer is advising India, as if he is a friend and well wisher of India. Both siblings feel same. Recommend

  • Bilal
    Aug 31, 2017 - 6:19PM

    Good analysis.
    With a fascist govt in India the trouble is they would always over calculate their hand and get into a conflict with china (with US backing). US, to stay relevant in this world of its declining influence would passively promote conflict. Potentially this could draw in other regional powers in the conflict too. Stupid Indian policy of fingering the dragon. India needs to focus on internal poverty, corruption and social uplift before it picks up a fight with china or chickens and necks.Recommend

  • rama
    Aug 31, 2017 - 6:46PM

    “The examples of Georgia and Ukraine are clear enough”

    Zamir Akaram does not understand the satellite state going its master and independent state.

    India might not have impressive number like China in its favor , but it is not weak state like Ukraine or Georgia .

    By citing Ukraine and Georgia , He has to remember that Pakistan is becoming satellite state of China and with CPEC it is complete, Recommend

  • kashkol khan
    Aug 31, 2017 - 8:38PM

    Brilliant analysis by the author !!! yet another example of the sharpness of our diplomats and other officers from the bureaucracy to get the best for the country; it is recommended that the author be appointed as the Ambassador to USA to immediately further consolidate the gains already made.Recommend

  • genesis
    Aug 31, 2017 - 10:09PM

    China was worried about the impact on trade and that is certainly going now with China now.Trade is abetter weapon that actual war.Recommend

  • Anjaan
    Sep 1, 2017 - 6:09AM

    Absolutely mind blowing … !! … an individual who seems to lack the basic understanding of foreign relations, calls himself a diplomat, and making a lavish living as a diplomat … ??!! … Why on earth would China jeopardise its burgeoning trade with India of 2017, a nuclear power and a fast growing economy, which is tilted heavily in its favour … ??!! … and this so called Paki diplomat is in his world of Khwaab, hoping for a China India war … ??!!Recommend

  • Harkol
    Sep 1, 2017 - 7:04AM

    Author seems entirely clueless as to what happened at doklam. But, world understands it. China tried to alter status quo, it was forced by India not to do so…

    China indeed taught a lesson to India in 1962. And India learnt well…Recommend

  • KSS
    Sep 1, 2017 - 8:50AM

    It is clear this guy is writing for the consumption of his fellow people. That is how he gets his salary and makes a living writing vengeful anti-India articles.Recommend

  • Kolsat
    Sep 1, 2017 - 9:23AM

    @Sennakot: What you write about India being under domination by Muslims and the British but the reason for this was that India which Included Pakistan and Bangladesh was then not united entity but a conglomeration of some 500 principalities some of whom were enemies of each other. This made domination by Muslims and British possible. Such is not the case now. So do not hold the hopes of India being broken up. Recommend

  • Naresh
    Sep 2, 2017 - 12:42AM

    @rama Ji : He has to remember that Pakistan is becoming satellite state of China and with CPEC it is complete
    No Sir. CPEC is a Game Changer. The Port of Gwadar will soon Handle 500 Million Tonnes ever year. The Chinese a building Two Sets of Pipe Lines i.e. One set of Oil Pipe Lines and One set of Natural Gas Pipe Lines to transport Millions of Tonnes of Oil as also Billions of Cubic Metres of Natural Gas imported from the Persian Gulf and transported to China by way of Xinjiang. Also PLA Army, Navy and Air Force will have Huge Bases in Gwadar. This is why CPEC is termed as a Game Changer as it will bring Huge Benefits to the Pakistani Economy.
    CheersRecommend

  • Sheikh Sa'adi
    Sep 2, 2017 - 12:41PM

    China is constructing a road on its side of the border. Following the recent agreement on disengagement these troops have been pulled back.

    A, If China was in the right and was constructing a road on ‘its side of the border’.

    B. And since today’s China is a much more formidable force, a juggernaut that India will not be able to withstand.

    C. WHY did China agree to ‘disengage’ and ‘pull back’?

    Something does not add up here.Recommend

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