Rolling thunder

There is a gathering sense that Pakistan-American relations are undergoing fundamental and far-reaching changes. What is in train is not so much driven by geo-political realignments as geo-economic, as new relationships emerge based around capital, business and international commerce. China and Russia feature heavily in the emerging scenario, and Pakistan is both hub and fulcrum now and in the future. Foreign policy has been makeshift in the last two years as the Panama Papers hobbled much of governance; but with the ouster of Nawaz Sharif and a new-ish cabinet as well as a dedicated foreign minister, there are inklings that Pakistan may be starting to get its foreign policy ducks in something closer to a row — and President Trump has perhaps paradoxically provided the impetus with his latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan.

Whatever America proposes to do in Afghanistan it will have been tried before and failed. We find ourselves in agreement with Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi in this perception. He has made his views clear on the matter and has said that his government will not allow the war in Afghanistan to spill over into Pakistan. There is a touch of naiveté about that as the war already has, and has done so for many years with obvious negative effects for Pakistan and Afghanistan come to that. That reality notwithstanding nothing is forever — particularly in a region as volatile historically as that Pakistan lives in.

It is now for Pakistan to turn threat into opportunity, and how this is played out in coming months is going to determine how well or ill Pakistan weathers the storm. Top of the agenda is a full stop to the equivocation that attends the relationship between elements of governance and extremist elements — a very large stick that Uncle Sam has beaten us with on numerous occasions. The beatings will continue unless and until that equivocation, that accommodation, the failure to confront in a way that is truly countervailing — is demonstrated in concrete terms. Break the ‘safe havens’ stick and a lot changes. That is going to involve confronting a range of uncomfortable realities, but the 20 points of the National Action Plan (NAP) is still the best template that is extant and needs to be returned to time and again.

Although there is no doubt as to which hand is on the tiller in respect of foreign policy formulation, it does appear that the government and the military are on the same page. China and Russia are now both on-record having said that US pressure on Pakistan is likely to have a negative rather than a positive impact; and equally unlikely to contribute much to resolutions in Afghanistan, where the Taliban in their principal iterations need to be at any table where peace is talked. They already control or influence heavily between 50 and 60 per cent of the country. Not having them at the table makes no sense. Crack the ‘talk to the Taliban’ nut and again a lot changes.

Notwithstanding the positions outlined above Pakistan today is vulnerable. The aggregate effects of years of poor decisions and bad governance have left us frail. A suspension of the $1 billion in aid that America gives to Pakistan annually as a part of any sanctions regime would hurt, and damage confidence across a basket of sectors regionally. The forex reserves are dwindling. The informal economy has grown rather than retreated under the tax regimes of the current government. Macro infrastructure projects are not going to kick in economically perhaps for a decade. There is an education and skills deficit and the demographic monster is chewing at our vitals. All of this and much more constitute an albatross largely of our own making, but perversely a beating with the Trump stick may kick-start a range of reactions that have potentially positive outcomes. There are brave decisions to be made in the coming days and weeks, and time for Pakistan to move on to the front foot.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 29^th, 2017.

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