No foregone conclusions

The transition from the prime ministership of Nawaz Sharif to Shahid Khaqan has proceeded without undue disturbance

That the transition from the prime ministership of Nawaz Sharif to that of Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has proceeded without undue disturbance has been true until it has come to the matter of the composition of the incoming cabinet — and the possible duration of the premiership of Mr Abbasi. Whilst care has to be exercised in the absence of formal statements about whatever is happening behind the arras it is evident that the new cabinet is not going to be a plug-and-play version of that which preceded it. There is uncertainty about a future role — if any — for former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar and it would appear that he is unwilling to join a cabinet headed up by PM Abbasi and that he was eyeing the foreign minister post; though his interest in that may also be on the wane.

There may equally be uncertainty according to at least one report as to whether Shehbaz Sharif will stay on as chief minister of Punjab until the 2018 election. The rationale for this is said to be that there is a dearth of people of sufficient calibre to hold down the Punjab job and Abbasi is a safe-enough pair of hands in the interim to allow him a year with his hands — or at least one of them the other being firmly held by his predecessor — on the controls. There are also likely to be new faces in the cabinet with five newcomers from south Punjab and the minor provinces, giving a more diverse aspect to the cabinet overall.

The oath-taking ceremony was postponed on Wednesday as a result of ‘pending decisions’ but it cannot be postponed indefinitely as there are matters of routine governance that require the imprimatur of the PM. The list of ‘probables’ is going to be compiled by PM Abbasi and Shehbaz Sharif and then submitted for approval to former PM Nawaz Sharif. Whatever the truth of all this the transition is not going to be seamless and wrinkle free, but the sooner clarity emerges the better for all concerned — not least a country that cannot go rudderless for much longer.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 4^th, 2017.

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