There is a slim majority — 51 per cent — that believes Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif should resign from his post and eschew politics altogether in the light of the report of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The report has been variously described as ‘damning’ by a range of commentators and as ‘rubbish’ by many of those that were the subject of the inquiry. By contrast 49 per cent were in favour of the PM taking up the cudgels and contesting a case against the JIT. Where there is a clearer majority — 59 per cent — is in the matter of who should succeed him and his brother Shahbaz Sharif is in front of the race. He has managed to remain outside the toxic fallout zone of the entire affair and features nowhere in the JIT report. The poll went across a range of vote banks and there was agreement that if the PML-N were to nominate Shahbaz Sharif he would ‘be accepted’.
Although there are dangers in extrapolating from a single poll, it would appear that the population in general would prefer the PM to step aside, and that their choice was based upon perceptions of the outcome of the JIT report in respect of individuals rather than the party they represent. If the crisis provoked by the JIT report can be resolved by a change in leadership it is at least possible that the PML-N will be able to preserve its vote bank into the next election, and that with Shahbaz Sharif potentially at the front of the party — win. The parties calling for the ouster of the PM may not have considered the consequences of their success. There is going to have to be a successor — and they may be a more electable figurehead than their predecessor.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 26th, 2017.
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