Ending the paralysis

The saddest part of the growing trust deficit between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been the economic fallout. Over the past year, our exports to that country have shrunk by as much as 27 per cent. This is an alarming trend and neither of the two countries can afford to see any further downward revision in these figures. Apart from the political mistrust, there are at least two other factors that have contributed to this situation: firstly, the Taliban insurgency has gained a stronger, firmer foothold in many parts of Afghanistan and fuelled lawlessness, preventing goods from reaching their destination. And secondly, the scaled down presence of Nato forces in Afghanistan has had its own impact on exports not just from Pakistan but other countries as well. The same, however, cannot be said of Iran which has seen an upturn in exports to Afghanistan – of course this has come at Pakistan’s expense.

Afghanistan’s security problems appear to be growing by the day. At least five suicide bombers attacked the police headquarters in the Paktia provincial capital of Gardezi on Sunday. Kabul has long shed its reputation as safe from insurgent violence, having endured deadly gun and suicide attacks with increasing frequency. Unable to ward off the Taliban assaults, the shaky government in control of Kabul has shown no qualms about blaming Islamabad for harbouring the militants that rampage across the country.

Pakistan and Afghanistan need to address the issue of falling exports if the current situation is to be improved. Even the joint business council meetings have become infrequent and irregular.

The word is that Kabul has lost interest in reaching a trade liberalisation agreement with Pakistan. Though both neighbours agreed to initiate negotiations on a bilateral preferential trade agreement in 2014, practically no headway has been made. Since 2016, the two countries have not been able to finalise even the dates of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Coordination Authority. Traders on both sides have suffered and so too have ordinary folk. One hopes the two sides can end the paralysis.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 19^th, 2017.

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