The second Industrial Revolution

A country that takes lead in adopting artificial intelligence technology should have distinct advantage on battlefield

Historically, nations have remained at different levels of development in arts, science and technology. People within countries, too, are at different stages of development depending on their educational and social background. But in the last decade or so technological developments have cut across country and continent fault lines and become available to humanity at large. The mobile phone is a classic example of this phenomenon.

What we are looking at, however, is something more transformational. Just as the world experienced the agricultural, industrial and information age it is now at the dawn of intelligence age. As a number of leading thinkers have explained, the first industrial revolution allowed us to replace work dependent on our bodies and ability to move things with machines that could do it for us. The second revolution that we are currently witnessing, will replace work dependent on our mental capacity and ability to capture and process information with computers capable of doing the same at much faster speed.



It is not surprising when the US Defence Secretary is predicting that the first line of defence within the next 10 years will be intelligent robots. What it implies is that these robotic soldiers will replace humans as first line of defence. This is no science fiction but years of scientific and technology research that is currently finding military application in highly professional armies. America has been leading in this race, but other countries are also working in this specialised field. All this has a potential to change the character of warfare and will influence tactics and strategy. Clearly, a country that takes the lead in adopting this technology should have a distinct advantage on the battlefield. Apart from development of autonomous intelligence systems there is potential for developing models to maximise combat power.

The scope in civilian application of artificial intelligence (AI) is equally wide. It will be manifest in self-driving cars the most noteworthy being the Telsa, or the special models made by traditional car companies of Ford, Volvo, BMW, Mercedes or Google. These major companies are heavily investing in self-driving technology either independently or jointly as we witness in case of Google and Ford. Uber has recently tested a self-driving truck that could eventually replace the need for humans to make these long and tiring journeys.

We are even seeing the impact of AI every day on the Internet. The Associated Press relies on AI to rapidly write basic articles and reports. Online retailers have a trove of information on their customers, including historical buying habits, and can accurately suggest other products one should buy when navigating their website. The third most rapidly expanding application of this is digital assistance also referred to as “internet of things”. For instance, it will refill one’s Frigidaire or pantry if it senses that certain items are getting below the normal usage threshold. It then can communicate this information back to the owner over their mobile phone, ensuring they do not have a shortage of ingredients at home. Supermarkets can embed tracking devices in one’s credit card or mobile app. And when shopping, the retailer based on one’s previous shopping history could offer a special discount.

Perhaps the most meaningful impact of this new technology will be in healthcare. Individuals with chronic heart conditions can be fitted with a device that can track their physical status and relay this information to their doctor remotely, providing early warning of an imminent problem.

Another example of the technology revolution is digital currency enabled by block chain transaction database. This development will go a long way in the decentralisation of economy while guaranteeing the execution of contracts behind the transactions. There will be far greater security behind financial transactions as redundancy insures that it is impossible to manipulate the system. Introduction of digital currency will eliminate use of banknotes and make transactions easier and safer.

The developments give us a broad sense of how technology is going to influence our life. There would be less predictability about specific developments. However, there is unanimity among scientists that there will be a general trend towards making things smarter and smarter through the application of AI. And this will have the most profound impact on our lives in the coming decades. In fact, AI is already finding application in hospitals, aircraft and offices in advanced countries. What it boils down to is that AI creates the ability “to create as many different types of thinking as we can” says digital expert Kelvin Kelly. And as he elaborates in simpler terms, AI by helping us think differently, we are in a better position to create wealth and boost our economy.

The most profound impact of AI will be the development of robots. These robots apart from doing the jobs that they were already doing will do many more that most of us may have never imagined. The best part is all this will create new jobs. Of course many existing jobs will be lost but these would be less than the ones that will be created. In addition, this technology will make existing products and services cheaper and of better and more reliable quality which would beneficially impact society to access critical services like healthcare, banking and transportation.

Google and IBM have created a separate dedicated group to be one of the world’s top leaders in AI. Many other tech companies are also entering this field aggressively. Intel and other chip producing companies are trying to build chips that have compatible power to meet the requirement of AI. Microsoft through alignments with AI companies is positioning itself for the new age. Many companies are also reorganising and bringing changes in the way they do business.

And there is a race among countries to hire the best talent in this field. It is critical that school and university departments foster learning and advancement in this field, or otherwise one risks missing out on all the benefits of this intelligence age.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 4^th, 2017.

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