Aiming for parliament

For the PPP this strategy is going to give them a chance to repair their battered reputation before next election

On the ninth anniversary of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto her widower and her son announced their intention of standing for parliament at the next elections. The Co-chairmen of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) were appearing on the same platform together for the first time in three years at a rally in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh adjacent to Larkana. They drew a large crowd which seemed somewhat muted and once the speeches finished soon after 5 pm it quickly dispersed.

For the most part the speeches by the Co-chairmen was a recycling or reiteration of some very old material indeed with little to raise them above the mundane – but there was one announcement that is going to hold the attention of pundits and commentators between now and the next General Election. Both of the Co-chairmen are to stand for parliament. The senior Zardari is to stand from Nawabshah in the seat currently occupied by Azra Fazal Pechuho, and Bilawal will contest from the Larkhana seat currently held by Ayaz Soomro. We assume that both the sitting parliamentarians were aware of the change in their fortunes prior to the speeches. If both voluntarily give up their seats it will trigger by-elections and if successful both of the aspirant candidates will be in parliament before the end of the current term.

This raises a number of scenarios, not the least being whether it will be Mr Zardari or Mr Bilawal Bhutto who will be the official leader of the parliamentary Opposition.  It is also clear the PPP is committed to parliament and its processes and the same cannot be said for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party led by Imran Khan, who has been openly contemptuous of this apex democratic institution.

Having Mr Zardari in parliament as well as his son is going to be something of a challenge for the sitting government as well. Although it has not been as dismissive of parliament as has the PTI, the PML-N has hardly made best use of it and the prime minister and his cabinet members are rare visitors. It may be assumed that with the Co-chairmen in the house they are going to seek to exploit whatever weakness of either the PML-N or the PTI they can find. Assuming both Co-chairs win their seats then the PTI and the PML-N are going to have to move swiftly if they are not to find themselves getting a roasting from the freshly energised PPP. For Bilawal Bhutto Zardari he is going to be on the steepest of learning curves having no previous parliamentary experience whatsoever; and he will be looking to his father for a steer whilst many of those around him in the house will be doing all they can to engineer a fall flat on his face.

For the PPP this strategy, if successful, is going to give them a chance to repair their battered reputation before the next election and provide a much-needed shot in the arm. Again if successful the PPP once their men are in place can be considered as having fired the starting gun for the campaign that will be the run-up to the 2018 polls. The question that can only be answered by an election is whether a raised profile in parliament is going to be enough to counterbalance the weight of the PML-N that has a significant majority. The PPP fared poorly in recent local body’s elections particularly in Punjab where it is hoping to make inroads, but a national poll for a parliamentary seat is a different kettle of political fish.

With the Panama Papers refusing to go away and the PPP’s ‘Four Demands’ unlikely to be met by the sitting government, the re-entry of Mr Zardari to the political game has the potential to upset apple carts. Many of those at the rally today (Tuesday) will have attended only out of respect for their slain leader, but others are voters – and they have choices to make.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 28^th, 2016.

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