‘Pakistan’s economy will collapse in the next 10 years’

Published: November 23, 2016

KARACHI: Education is linked with economic prosperity but the education sector in Sindh is underperforming despite the fact that Rs700 million of the province’s annual development budget has been allocated to the education sector, said Education Minister Jam Mehtab Hussain Dahar.

“Pakistan’s economy is going to collapse like that of Greece’s in the next 10 years,” he warned. Dahar was addressing the inauguration ceremony of a conference, titled ‘International Conference on Transforming Economic Development: Policies and Strategies’, organised by the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) at the ICCBS, Karachi University on Tuesday. “Pakistan has been divided into haves and have-nots classes,” he said.

Economic stability: ‘Reforms in agriculture sector will boost economy’   

Like other flourishing countries, Pakistan has to manage according to its own environment to achieve the international Sustainable Development Goals, he said.

Pakistan is facing enormous challenges such as illiteracy, poverty, inequalities, corruption, energy and governance issues that have had a direct negative impact on the economic development and growth of the country, he pointed out.

“Pakistan is heading towards a social and economic hurricane that will cause great damage,” said AERC director Prof Dr Samina Khalil, adding that the economic hurricane will sweep away much of the current economy and Pakistan’s assumptions about the future.

The three-day conference aims to devise development policies and strategies for the transformation of the economy of Pakistan, explained Dr Khalil. It is providing a forum for discussion among renowned national and international academics, researchers, practitioners, policy makers and students, she said.

‘Roads and bridges no indicators of an emerging economy’

Seconding the education minister, economist Dr Kaiser Bengali said that Pakistan has been divided into two classes, the haves and have-nots. “The country’s exports are being reduced as compared to imports, which have increased,” he said, pointing out that the deficit created from this difference between exports and imports is mounting up debts.

Tension with India is extremely harmful for us, said Pakistan Institute of Development Economics vice-chancellor Dr Asad Zaman. “Pakistan needs to rethink and reconfigure trading patterns; self-sufficiency is the need of the hour,” said Zaman.

A total of 32 research papers will be presented in the conference.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 23rd, 2016.


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Reader Comments (44)

  • Jamal
    Nov 23, 2016 - 9:09AM

    Pakistan’s economy is going to collapse and PPP is playing a role in it. Can the hon minister shed some light on fake schools and ghost teachers spreading across the length and breadth of Sindh?Recommend

  • Haji Atiya
    Nov 23, 2016 - 9:58AM

    Too many people in Pakistan ! Should have imposed a 1 or 2 child per family policy in the country after the loss of East Pakistan. Huge population, and to a large extent an underproductive one, has a tremendous multiplier effect on all the other problems listed in the article. Now it’s too late Recommend

  • Riaz
    Nov 23, 2016 - 10:05AM

    After CPEC you need not worry.Recommend

  • Froeign Leg
    Nov 23, 2016 - 10:42AM

    CPEC has already been started, we are going to be another Singapore…Recommend

  • Saurav
    Nov 23, 2016 - 10:44AM

    Only one way to come out of this !!! Blame India and say Kashmir is the solution to the whole issue.Recommend

  • Albert Xavier
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:41AM

    Pakistan tactically has nukes.Recommend

  • سے Shaam (Hanafi)
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:42AM

    ‘Pakistan’s economy will collapse in the next 10 years’ A Heartiest Congratulations!!Recommend

  • Superficial
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:44AM

    Superficial analysis! Why can’t they focus on solutions specifically? Recommend

  • saleem
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:45AM

    @Saurav: hahahaha rightly saidRecommend

  • saleem
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:47AM

    @Froeign Leg: you have two ports already in Karachi, CPEC is just a hoax. China is the main beneficiary in CPEC. Our politicians are only having the credit of it to get through next election… that’s the bitter truth.Recommend

  • saleem
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:48AM

    @Riaz: Another dream… keep sleeping dudeRecommend

  • saleem
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:49AM

    @Jamal: Not just PPP all political parties including your beloved establishment. Recommend

  • Superficial
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:52AM

    Academics need to do these kinds of exercises just to keep in business. Get real and do some indepth studies. Recommend

  • Tyggar
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:53AM

    Who needs economy when you have CPEC?Recommend

  • Parvez
    Nov 23, 2016 - 11:55AM

    Absolutely correct…….and the collapse has been planned and engineered with the help of our civilian governments while all those responsible have their wealth stashed abroad and their exit plans in place.Recommend

  • Dil se
    Nov 23, 2016 - 12:07PM

    We should go all out for the freedom of Kashmir that will eradicate all our problems even if it takes another 50 yearsRecommend

  • Dilruba
    Nov 23, 2016 - 12:16PM

    Don’t worry after CPEC, Pakistan will be biggest economy of AsiaRecommend

  • Vish
    Nov 23, 2016 - 12:19PM

    The economy will never collapse since during these 10 years Pakistan would transform as buffer state of China where Chinese currency would be used, and the whole of Pakistan would be an another URMI region…Recommend

  • Sajad
    Nov 23, 2016 - 12:57PM

    Overly generalized bla bla. Recommend

  • ishrat salim
    Nov 23, 2016 - 1:25PM

    Sindh is not only under performing in education but in all sectors. PPP is just interested in loot & plunder. Rs 700 million budget in education sector is less than a percentage of the total, out of which 90% goes in for the salary of the teaching staff, out of which 50% eaten up by ghost teachers & schools. So, how do you think education sector to improve ?

    That the country`s economy will collapse after 10 years, is not far fetched, due to the massive borrowings by the civilian govt. Unless the policy is focused towards achieving exports, FDIs & drastic steps to improve agriculture, future is literally bleak. Thank you ALL. Recommend

  • Singh
    Nov 23, 2016 - 1:59PM

    An eye opening article. When its like Greece economy, then pak is a European country.Recommend

  • Haseeb Khan
    Nov 23, 2016 - 2:02PM

    Yes fully agree.In addition if tax amnesty in respect of immoveable property is announced by the government to whiten Rs 7 Trillion black money,the economy will collapse in next 3-5 years.Recommend

  • Mujahid
    Nov 23, 2016 - 3:17PM

    @Haji Atiya:
    One or 2 child policy is not a good solution to this problem. China imposed 1 child policy for decades, and recently, allow the couples to have two. Because they are facing a huge gender imbalance. Which is a worse condition and a phenomena which can lead to disasters. Recommend

  • Londonwala Financial Analyst (Frontier mkt Equities)
    Nov 23, 2016 - 3:29PM

    I predict Pakistan will become true colony of China in 5 years.. People who laugh today can note todays date and 5 years is not too far. You can remind me and i will publicly apologise if i am wrong…Recommend

  • cautious
    Nov 23, 2016 - 3:31PM

    Author maybe vague but his theory makes sense. Pakistan’s economy is currently fueled by borrowings … but Pakistan is rapidly run out of debt capacity. Further – the borrowed money is being spent on projects where no economic analysis has ever been performed and there is no obvious plan on how those projects will ever generate sufficient returns to fund the debt payments. Roads, pipelines, ports, and power plants maybe positive infrastructure investments but they don’t necessarily generate sufficient wealth to warrant investment — especially in a country where the majority of people/businesses seem to avoid paying taxes or utility bills. Like Greece – one day Pakistan the lenders are going to say enough and demand Pakistan tighten it’s belt and repay the debt.Recommend

  • reader
    Nov 23, 2016 - 5:12PM

    if you also knew what is happening in sindh education department then you will be aware also that pakistan will collapse soon this wayRecommend

  • Haji Atiya
    Nov 23, 2016 - 5:33PM

    Whatever the problems China faces now with that supposed gender imbalance pales in comparison to the vast benefits they have reaped. And knowing Pakistan and its culture, having as many children as physically possible is enthusiastically encouraged irrespective of the consequences, at the micro and macro levels. Believe me, it would have worked here if strictly enforced 4-5 decades ago. Recommend

  • Shahid
    Nov 23, 2016 - 6:24PM

    It would be good if Pakistan becomes Chinese colony.Atleast the common man will have his basic needs met which independent Pakistan has been unable to provide.Recommend

  • Iqbal
    Nov 23, 2016 - 6:38PM

    In 10 years? I am seeing it happen as I right this.

  • Faizoo
    Nov 23, 2016 - 7:25PM

    An education Minister forcasting the economy, wow…..Recommend

  • hnr
    Nov 23, 2016 - 9:52PM

    From these comment 2 points seem to be clear CPEC and Kashmir and both will not solve problems.They will eat up more resources and burn a big hole.Recommend

  • hnr
    Nov 23, 2016 - 9:54PM

    @Londonwala Financial Analyst (Frontier mkt Equities):
    Not too fr to go look at Xingjian and how Muslims get treated.A foretaste of what is to come.Recommend

  • PrasadDeccani
    Nov 23, 2016 - 9:57PM

    Such titles demoralize a nation. Try to avoid them.Recommend

  • PrasadDeccani
    Nov 23, 2016 - 10:08PM

    @Haji Atiya:

    Population control needs to be on priority basis in all countries of this sub-continent. It is never late in these countries to control population and, to buy real estate.Recommend

  • auginpk
    Nov 24, 2016 - 6:19AM

    Self reliance is an Utopian failed concept.

    India tried and failed. And after abandoning this Indian economy is galloping like anything.

    Rather after abandoning self reliance Indian are more self reliant now. Because it developed more sectors of economy.

    Other countries including England have tried to isolate their economy from the world. But then they found that it shrinks the economy. England had to repeal corn law to give a kick to its own economy.Recommend

  • FAZ
    Nov 24, 2016 - 6:20AM

    RIP auto correctRecommend

  • Anwar
    Nov 24, 2016 - 9:19AM

    Typical fear mongering from the socialist left. Not that I’m a big fan of Nawaz Sharif, but Pakistan’s economy has never collapsed or even regressed in its history. Sure, there has been slow growth at points, but Pakistan has always grown. This country is too big to fail. Sadly though, it will never reach its potential with the current crop of politicians that this country has the misfortune for re-electing time and time again.Recommend

  • SR
    Nov 24, 2016 - 1:51PM

    Dont compare with China. They are 50 years ahead. Recommend

  • Haji Atiya
    Nov 24, 2016 - 2:20PM

    A simple measure evidencing how Pakistan’s economy has been regressing from the get-go is the value of its rupee vis-a-vis most major hard currencies. The rupee has been going downhill ever since Partition.Recommend

  • Rizwan
    Nov 24, 2016 - 2:30PM

    There is no need to blame a cunnying neighbor, when it becomes the habit and routine. You have much bigger vulnerabilities and issues than we have..We have dealt with them in the past and will in the future..Kashmir is an international issue and they will be liberated against your vicious wishes and wills…Rest, our problems are ours, we will deal with them, so don’t poke nose in other’s matters..that what i was telling you about..Recommend

  • One thought
    Nov 24, 2016 - 6:37PM

    @Haji Atiya: Not too late. In the scheme of things, nature has a way to make things even. Consider countries like Germany has a declining population, but with recent upsurge of refugees from the Middle East and Turkey, the population will not become extinct as such. Similarly over populated nations like Pakistan, India, China have seen vast numbers emigrate to all countries over the globe. Pakistan’s population growth will tend to slow down, with increasing urbanization, higher literacy levels, higher income levels, higher mobility, better health facilities. Things keep changing.Recommend

  • Haji Atiya
    Nov 24, 2016 - 8:12PM

    @One thought:
    The countries you have cited have already reached substantial critical mass in terms of industrial development coupled with a robust scientific and technological base. They are in a position to handle the effects of fluctuating population levels.Recommend

  • pls answer
    Feb 1, 2017 - 3:30PM

    that’s it? is this why you broke away from india? & what do you expect from china after becoming their colony…. forgot how they treat muslim in Xinxiang (or whatever is the name)Recommend

    Feb 21, 2017 - 1:41PM

    Pakistan is facing enormous challenges such as illiteracy, poverty, inequalities, corruption, energy and governance issues that have had a direct negative impact on the economic development and growth of the country. Don’t worry CPEC will solve all these issues……………whatever remains we can solve via boots, bayonets and bullets…………….the 3Bs………………..May Allah guide us all……..Recommend

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