“It might be the second or third priority unless something blows up,” Dr Weinbaum said on Tuesday during a roundtable discussion at the US embassy.
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A professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois, Dr Weinbaum served as an analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the US Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research from 1999 to 2003. He is currently a scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC.
Dr Weinbaum disclosed that Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was not taken on board when Pakistan’s former interior minister Gen (retd) Naseerullah Babar first ‘adopted’ Taliban during Benazir Bhutto’s second term as prime minister in mid-90s.
“He told me we can control them,” he quoted Gen Babar. When he later asked the former interior minister why he could not do so, he said because the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was ousted from power soon after.
Soon after taking office Afghan President Ashraf Ghani signed an MoU with Pakistan for intelligence sharing between the two countries which was a very significant move. It could have changed the situation had it been materialised but Ghani could not muster political support for it domestically.
Dr Weinbaum said Taliban could not be reconciled as they do not believe in western democratic system. Signing of a peace deal between Afghan government and Gulbuddin Hikmatyar has complicated the matter. Animosity between Afghanistan’s former president Hamid Karzai and incumbent Ghani is further exacerbating the situation in the war-ravaged country.
“There is a lot of bad blood between Karzai and Ghani. Normally they [the Afghan government] convene Loya Jirga but they could not, fearing Karzai would take over. He (Karzai) never intended to be far from power,” he said, while describing complexities of Afghan situation.
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He claimed Afghan Taliban also eye Pakistan with suspicion and the country does not have enough influence to force Taliban to accept something. “Pakistan does not have that influence on Taliban. Bringing them to the negotiating table and hammering a deal are two different things,” he said.
“Given its waning influence, Pakistan also wants a peace agreement in Afghanistan provided it doesn’t conflict its national interest,” he said. Dr Weinbaum claimed any support to strong Pashtoon bloc in Afghanistan would be ultimately harmful to Pakistan. It might instigate feelings for Pashtoonistan.
According to the US analyst, there is a strong perception in the US military that they could not defeat insurgency in Afghanistan since Taliban have sanctuaries on Pakistani side of the border.
“At the same time, the Afghan government has also failed in delivering to the masses who have continued providing support to Taliban, who now control around 30 per cent area in Afghanistan,” he added.
“There was tremendous support from international community when Karzai came to power and then to Ashraf Ghani. Had their governance been better things would have been different. Failure in Afghanistan is mainly due to failure of Afghan government,” he said.
He also does not see any significant changes in the US policy on Afghanistan under the new administration rather there can be a surge of US troops in the war-torn country.
“It depends who he (Trump) listens to. Zalmay Khalilzad might be the one. I don’t think withdrawal will happen. I Won’t be surprised if US sends 5,000 more troops” he said.
Publicly regional countries like Russia and Iran demand US troops should leave Afghanistan but privately they convey the US authorities that it should not be a hasty withdrawal.
“If the US abandons Afghanistan it will become epicentre of terrorism. Similarly, a destabilised Pakistan will also be a nightmare for United States,” he added.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 16th, 2016.
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