COP30 Belem - quo vadis

The outcome of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), held at Belem, Brazil from 10 to 21 Nov 2025, was anxiously awaited with the ardent hope that the world as a whole will deliver unflinching commitment and affirmation to restrict and reverse the accelerated trend of global warming beyond the agreed target of 1.5°C by 2030. The primary onus to achieve universal consensus for meeting the agreed climate goals and Paris Agreement 2015, legally and morally, lied with the developed countries and emerging economies like China and India, which are responsible for major GHG emissions. However, the plight and the predicament of the planet earth is self-evident from the bleak reality that the reduction of GHG emissions reported at COP30 under the current pledges and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) was merely 12% by 2035, far below the 60% required to stay within the 1.5°C limit without realising that every fraction of a degree of warming could lead to catastrophic impact on the lives and livelihood of vulnerable people and communities. The extreme weather events, severe heatwaves, torrential downpours and raging floods and consequent mass extinction of biodiversity, greater mortality rates and incessant food and water insecurity, among others, will diminuate the future generations' ability to survive and sustain.

The failure to respect and implement the international climate obligations under the Paris Agreement is a glaring manifestation of the inherent design defect in the governance structure of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The predominance of myopic "national political interest" to the blatant neglect of the overwhelming scientific evidence as to the intensity of climate emergency continues to propel and drive the climate governance system. The absence of the US from COP30 and the intransigence and sophisticated geopolitical and geo-economic apologia of the major polluters prevented the conference to agree on a specific time-bound and financially-sound strategy for accelerated implementation of climate targets by 2030 or 2035. The financial commitments and pledges required to implement the climate action plans including those related to NDCs remained an elusive dream. The COP29 target of at least $300 billion annually by 2035 was already considered highly inadequate while the proposal embodied in "Baku to Belém Roadmap for $1.3 Trillion" lacked a concrete action plan and pragmatic arrangements to help developing countries achieve their NDCs. The "power and prestige" of fossil fuel lobby once again established its iniquitous influence to delay timely transition to clean energy. The conference was further tarnished by massive security arrangements, naked display of batons and boots and a crackdown on the indigenous communities and activists to stifle the voices and choices of the vulnerable mortals in a peaceful assemblage. This in itself exposed the reality of dichotomy between eco-destructive infrastructure development and deforestation of Amazon and the very essence and spirit of COP30 to safeguard the environmental integrity of the planet and pursuit of a common cause based on mutual respect, tolerance and right to co-exist.

There were, however, at the same time some positive takeaways though more in rhetoric than substance. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell stated: "COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet." The adoption of COP30 Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA) and the Belem Package, as a follow-up to the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MP), and the findings of the first Global Stocktake (GST) was acclaimed as a palpable reflection of the firm belief and conviction of billions of people including governments, businesses, financial institutions, civil society and indigenous communities to strive together for tangible and faster reduction of GHG emissions. The conference also resolved to initiate voluntary climate action around six themes: (i) transitioning energy, industry and transport; (ii) stewarding forests, oceans and biodiversity; (iii) transforming agriculture and food systems; (iv) building resilience for cities, infrastructure and water; (v) fostering human and social development; and (vi) the cross-cutting axis of technology and capacity-building.

In addition, Brazil launched "Tropical Forests Forever Facility" as a new financing instrument for forest preservation with initial funding from countries like Germany and Norway.

A compendium and repository of integrated practical solutions was also introduced to serve as a robust guide for adaptation and replication by the interested governments. A Whole-of-Society "Mutirão" to mobilise "whole-of-society" action towards accomplishing the shared goals of climate change and supporting NDCs, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) received universal approbation. This was further reinforced by a trillion-dollar package for industrial decarbonisation by 2035 through a massive switch-over to electric vehicles, renewable energy, green industrial projects and innovative carbon absorption technologies.

Pakistan's participation was both effective and expressive. Its delegation emphatically called to attention the paradox of climate odyssey inflicting the country in terms of the disproportionate climate burden e.g. the indubitable accelerated glacial melt and devastating floods of 2022 and 2025 vis-a-vis less than one per cent release of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Also, Pakistan in partnership with Unicef organised a high-level event "Operationalising Loss and Damage: Financing Resilience and Recovery in Vulnerable Countries" to underscore the critical need for concessional financing for climate-victim and vulnerable countries to undertake immediate, assistance, recovery and rehabilitation programmes.

While it all sounds euphoric and blissful, the woeful reality ever since the Paris Agreement of 2015 is that the international and national affirmations and commitments to combat the enormity, severity and scale of the climate crisis turn out to be political oratory and emotive fallacy in the absence of time-bound climate-action frameworks and easily accessible financial instruments. Alas, the journey towards establishing a fair global climate justice system and endowing a livable planet for the generations to come, especially the inhabitants of fragile eco-systems, thus continues to remain a narcissistic and delusive bliss not to be realised in the foreseeable future.