The water conflict

There are many bones of contention between Pakistan and India with the conflicts along the Line of Control being perhaps the most visible, but it is water that may yet be the spark that could ignite a serious conflict. Both India and Pakistan share a common need regarding water and it is a diminishing resource. Water may be diminishing but it is also a vital source of power generation for both countries and now India has announced that it is to build three new hydro-electric schemes on rivers that flow into Pakistan with an obvious threat to the volume of the downstream flow. Water was long ago recognised as an issue in need of regulation, hence the creation of the Indus Water Treaty 56 years ago. The IWT has managed to survive wars and political tension thus far, but with India raising the possibility of its unilateral revocation it now looks under real threat. The Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, has said that such a move would be tantamount to a declaration of war. There are a range of clauses within the IWT that ought to preclude its unilateral revocation as well as protocols for conflict-resolution. These should be immediately activated.

As matters stand outright conflict does not appear imminent but the threats emanating from India have to be seen in the context of an all-time low in bilateral relations. The water problem is just one of a basket of intractable issues none of which have proved open to resolution since Partition, and are added to as the years pass. Pakistan has now approached the World Bank — the original broker of the IWT — in an effort to head off the dispute. This is not going to go away, and Pakistan is vulnerable to any aggressive actions in respect of water management that India may choose to deploy. The macro issue of climate change has to be factored in for both nations as well. Water is truly the resource around which existential threat is hung for both countries, and neither can afford yet another pointless war. We urge pragmatic and urgent resolution. 

Published in The Express Tribune, September 29^th, 2016.

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