Revolution — in a teacup

What may guard Pakistan against revolutions is constitutional order, tradition of change through democratic means.

A revolution is a mass rebellion against an existing social and political order and rests on some vision about how to reorder the society and redefine state-society relations. Rebellions against existing regimes with strong armies, intelligence agencies, police and torture houses are great social enterprises, partly inspired by the dream of a progressive future society and partly by the spirit of sacrifice. The desire to rebel is linked to a lack of faith in the existing political order’s ability to deliver justice, peace, security and well-being to citizens.

Revolutions are interesting subjects for a number of reasons, but one thing common among them is that nobody can predict where they will occur, when and for what reasons? Who knew three weeks ago that a revolutionary situation would emerge in Egypt and a man in charge for over 30 years would be forced to resign.

Thinking of the Middle East and the wider region, including Pakistan, and whether or not a similar mass rebellion is likely to happen, we must know one thing for sure: Revolutions often are based on radical and new ideas. Perhaps we are witnessing, in the core of the Middle East, a revolutionary spirit which mandates that people must have the right to have their own government. In the current political order, hegemonic regimes have imposed themselves on the people through either, dynastic family monarchies or through the militaries under the facade of a national party. One uses tradition and service to the nation as a source of legitimacy, while the other uses modernity and national emotions. The latter variety that we see in Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen has used national emotion. The fruits of modernisation are limited and their distribution is inequitable.

There is much media talk and intellectual speculation about a similar revolution in Pakistan. The big, really big question is, have we reached that stage or has the system, democratic in procedural terms, completely broken down? Although revolutions never call before happening, we can have a fair assessment of a particular social and political order and its relationship with the society and its people. An abrupt change within an existing system doesn’t occur if it has strong shades of democratic colours. By this I mean, a strong commitment of political parties and the people to democracy. The question of democratic values and culture is equally important.

Pakistan has a mixed system of democracy and authoritarianism that it has retained under, both, civilian and military governments. What may guard Pakistan against revolutions is its constitutional order, tradition of change through democratic means and democratic consensus, both among the ruling elite and the masses. True, the commitment to democracy at popular level remains questionable, primarily because democratic governments have repeatedly failed to deliver according to popular expectations. It is for this reason that some sections of the populations have in the past celebrated military takeovers. I will cast my vote with those who argue that mass unrest is possible, but that it can only force fresh elections if the political elite remain together in the democratic transition project. If they become polarised, as they have in the past, and a protest movement takes to the streets and paralyses the government, the military will take over with a promise of ‘genuine’ democracy.

Pakistan is in a grey zone today because of the undemocratic behaviour of its elected political executives. I believe that the current political party leaders are capable of sorting out things among themselves and the political system has a legal and constitutional mechanism to do some path correction. Before a big popular uprising occurs, let us be content with the storm in the cup of tea.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 14^th, 2011.