Unemployment figures

If the unemployment rate is as low as the government claims it to be, then even the minor uptick in the number of people without work would not be cause for worry. Yet we find ourselves highly sceptical of the data emanating from the Pakistan Labour Force Survey for fiscal year 2010, which suggests that the unemployment rate was a meagre 5.6 per cent. We are not certain as to whether the error is a genuine methodological flaw or whether the government is deliberately fiddling with the numbers, but all anecdotal evidence suggests that the real rate of unemployment is significantly higher.

Regardless of the source of the error, we would urge the government to come up with more accurate computations about the state of the Pakistani labour force. It is bad enough to provide inaccurate information to the public. It is even worse if the government is using this data in its own planning efforts.

A 5.6 per cent rate suggests that unemployment is not a serious problem in the country, yet the overwhelming majority of economists and public policy experts agree that it is one of the most serious economic concerns facing Pakistan today. If the government cannot get itself to admit the problem, then how can it be expected to work towards a solution?

It is highly likely that the labour force survey is just another in a long line of symptoms showing that the current administration has neither the wisdom nor the courage to confront the country’s economic challenges and would rather hide behind distortions and platitudes. We remain confounded as to why that should be so. The economy is admittedly in bad shape and it will take strong efforts to get it back on track, but there is a near-unanimous consent amongst experts as to how get the task done. It is time for the administration to cease commenting and start taking charge of the economy. The government owes it to the people to be honest about the scale of the problem as well as the hard measures that would be needed to move towards a solution.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 13^th, 2011.