The American perspective

There is a genuine fear that due to Pakistan’s inaction and misplaced priorities, it may isolate itself

The flux in American foreign policy as well as the changing geo-political landscape that has been in the works for the better part of a decade but which somehow has been missed by Pakistan’s security establishment, is now causing major anxiety within the political and military leadership of the country.

One of the major concerns that the Americans have tried to address is their reliability as a partner to Pakistan, treading between carrots and sticks. The Pakistani establishment is of the view that Americans are easily distracted from the end-goal and, in the process, have the tendency to create havoc for their partners. From the American perspective, however, through the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill, the US has tried to ensure Pakistan of its reliability and that America is here to stay until stability is at satisfactory levels in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Similarly, with a focus on relations with the civilian government, the Americans have tried to take the US-Pakistan relationship beyond mere matters of security. At the same time, however, on the question of reliability, the Americans have been blunt in saying that they will not support or intervene on Pakistan’s behalf in its complicated relationship with India. In fact, this has been the American policy since the 1960s, when Pakistan mistakenly expected American help in the 1965 and 1971 wars with India.

Anxiety over American overtures to India is also deeply felt by Pakistan, but the Americans have been quick to address those by clearly stating that US ties with India and Pakistan are completely independent of one another and are equal. At my recent meeting with the assistant secretary of South and Central Asia in the State Department, the message was very clear: America has a strong economic and commercial interest in India that will translate into a geo-political interest in the context of the Asia pivot. With Pakistan, the US has a continued geo-political interest, especially in the context of Afghanistan and the Muslim world. The State Department, for the last decade, has re-configured the global map and categorised Pakistan within the Central Asia and Middle East section, allowing it to deal with India and the rest of South Asia separately.

Pakistan’s security establishment has also expressed clear concerns to the Americans that not all the enemies of the US are enemies of Pakistan and that Pakistan will not indiscriminately bomb or wage war against elements that are not a direct threat to it, so as to avoid a blowback in the country. This concern is the major bone of contention between the US and Pakistan, and the Americans have argued excessively with the Pakistan government to take the enemies of the US as its own enemies, to avoid a total collapse of the state through such non-state actors.

With half of the country already in a state of war, it is hard for Pakistan to pick more battles than it can afford — hence, it tolerates the presence of the Haqqani network in the country.

From the American perspective, Pakistan’s major concerns are not foreign policy-related in the context of Afghanistan or India, but involve the domestic problems that Pakistan is facing in the form of an economic meltdown, energy shortage, youth bulge, and the water and health crises. For the Americans, such issues are a matter of national security and there is very little focus of the Pakistan government to address these issues that have the potential to escalate into a major national security crisis. Foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy, where Pakistan is suffering to keep abreast.

From the viewpoint of the Americans, there is a genuine fear that due to Pakistan’s inaction and misplaced priorities, it may become isolated in a region which is becoming deeply interconnected as a result of economic and commercial interests. It is for this reason that the Americans have welcomed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a way of ensuring that it doesn’t miss the tide of development and regional connectivity that is changing the map of Asia. For the Americans, the more connected Pakistan is in the region and in global society, the more stable it will be.

The belief that foreign aid agencies, or America, can help make or break Pakistan is a misplaced one. The driver of change has to come from within the country through a consolidated and inclusive effort. The American message in almost all its diplomatic engagements with our country is that only Pakistan can help itself.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 13^th, 2016.

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