April consumer price index seen up 12.6%

KARACHI: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the key indicator of inflation, is likely to post 12.6 per cent yearon- year increase in April because of a rise in petroleum prices, according to a Reuters poll.

April consumer prices were seen rising 12.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to the median of a survey of 12 analysts and economists. The CPI rose by 12.91 per cent in March from a year ago. The Federal Bureau of Statistics is due to release CPI data on, or soon after, Monday. “The aftershocks reverberating from the recent petroleum products price increase are more likely to make their impact felt on the CPI inflation for April 2010,” said Khalid Iqbal Siddiqui, director of Invest and Finance Securities Ltd.

Analysts said inflation could exceed 13 per cent by the end of the 2009/10 (July-June) fiscal year and the central bank is likely to maintain a tight monetary policy. “CPI inflation could potentially shoot back up over 13 per cent once again to close out the fiscal year,” said Siddiqui. “Therefore the State Bank of Pakistan’s next monetary policy statement is likely to be cognizant of this expectation.”