Danger still remains for Turkey's Erdogan

The July 15 coup plotters wrote another dark chapter in Turkish political history. They used a squadron of F-16s along with half a dozen helicopters to attack state institutions, such as the parliament. About 300 Turks, including half the coup plotters, lost their lives in the process. It was a weekend marred with uncertainty and anger.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim confirmed to media that a coup attempt was underway but was bound to fail. But now it’s clear that even he did not know much about the scale of the coup. The chief of the land forces was unreachable at the time, presumed to be held hostage, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was safe but out of sight for media inquiries.

The state television TRT was taken off air only to be briefly brought back to announce the coup and declare Erdogan a ‘traitor’. The bid to take over popular NTV failed and the cable news continued uninterrupted. Social media and cellular services also remained unhindered.



In a brief statement, the coup junta stated their goal was “to reinstall the constitutional order, democracy, human rights and freedom.”

Certain renegade officers of Turkish Air Force (TAF) also flew F-16s low over institutions to plat precision-guided munitions. These buildings included the Parliament House and headquarters of the intelligence services. Turkey lost tourists’ and airline industry’s confidence when its airspace was closed for international traffic. Tanks rolled over cars and military gunships aimed at officials loyal to the Turkish constitution while a TAF fighter jet shot down a Sikorsky helicopter attacking state institutions.

During this came the FaceTime moment when the country’s most powerful man needed television airtime to mobilise followers. Erdogan contacted a private channel using FaceTime and ordered the presenter to hold her handset facing the camera, as he urged his supporters to take to the streets. Given his strong-arm tactics against free media, human rights activists and political foes, Erdogan may have found this moment chastening.

On the other hand, owing to brutal military coups in modern Turkey’s history, the disloyal soldiers found no subscribers. Opposition parties, media and civil society vehemently opposed the takeover.

The rising tension

By Monday the country was back in the control of the elected government with over 3,000 military men held in police custody. Over 100 of them died resisting widespread opposition, while a few surrendered. The country is facing an intensive counter-intelligence operation focused especially on military, judiciary and bureaucracy. Today, over 10,000 government officials, including military men, judiciary and interior ministry bureaucrats have been expelled. The top military aide to the president has also been arrested for his alleged involvement in the failed bid.

Turkey and Erdogan are faced with a tough test. The country is sharply split along political lines. Over half the population believes whatever Erdogan says while the rest oppose him but can’t forge a common platform to pose a significant threat.

Is the ruling party Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) and Ankara ready for transparent and just investigation of July 15 affairs? If Erdogan’s statements can be a guide, the answer is a big no. Recent history of his rule suggests the same. But a massive witch-hunt against his ideological and political opponents is touted to be on the cards. The president has already sought extradition of Fethullah Gulen, a self-exiled religious scholar from Turkey based in Philadelphia, United States. The AKP leader alleges Gulen masterminded the coup attempt, but the 90-year-old has vehemently denied.

Besides a few other opponents of AKP, Gulen has also alleged Erdogan faked the coup in an attempt to ‘cleanse’ the judiciary, police and military. While Washington has sought solid proof of Gulen’s involvement in the coup to consider the extradition demand, the theory that AKP orchestrated the coup sounds too far-fetched.

Since 2002, when AKP came to power, the military has been weary of its ideology and policies. Erdogan and his team, however, skilfully managed to subdue the armed forces under civilian control by amending the constitution. But the opposition to AKP did not dissipate in the ranks and eventually resulted in Friday’s coup. As a result, considering the takeover bid was led by dozens of serving generals and a few retired ones, it would have been too risky for any political party to fake such a massive exercise. The believers of ‘faking the coup’ theory ignore the praetorian history of Turkey’s armed forces as well.

Setting an example for Pakistan

For now, the turbulence is there to stay in Turkey as the coup has fast-paced the process of national introspection. Although, Turkey's premier has said there won't be any revenge and the government will respect the judicial process, much depends on whether Erdogan chooses to become a selfless leader or a self-preserving politician. With Daesh morphing into a guerrilla movement after a likely loss of territory, and tyrant Assad sending a constant stream of refugees, the armed forces too will have to rethink their future role in national affairs.



For Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif, there is little to rejoice. He is no Erdogan by any measure. He is on a borrowing spree from global financial institutions while the Turkish leader listed his country amongst the top 20 economies worldwide. On the other hand, Erdogan is massively popular while Nawaz is even losing his stronghold in Lahore. The PML-N leader’s supporters also shy away from protests hence, lying down in front of military tanks with the police arresting coup-plotting soldiers is also out of the question. The only commonality between the two is their harsh and witch-hunting tendencies against the opposition and civil society.

As for Pakistan’s military, constitutional doors have been long shut for successfully plotting a coup. The Supreme Court also buried the Doctrine of Necessity, repeatedly used to justify the treasonous act in the past. Lastly, turbulent Afghanistan, aggressive India and Iran’s urge for regional hegemony leaves too much on the platter for the country’s armed forces. Hence, the struggle for control over defence and foreign policy may remain. As far as the people of Pakistan are concerned, the Turkish nation has set a magnificent example should a similar situation arise.

Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets @naveed360