The future of Pakistan’s Eurasia juncture

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline will be another major boost to Central Asia-Pakistan bond

Tajikistan’s Dushanbe and Islamabad have been cosying up over the last few years. The relationship is transforming from rhetorical to functional with the inauguration of Central Asia South Asia -1000 power project on May 12. The $1.17 billion quadrilateral project brings no cure to Pakistan’s power supply woes but it heralds start of multipronged cooperation for the two neighbours. Tajikistan ranks third after US and Russia in hydroelectric generation with output amounting to over 76% in the country, creating much room for Islamabad to learn.

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline stretching over 1,800 kilometres will be another major boost to Central Asia-Pakistan bond, however, only if Kabul manages to establish its writ across the country.



Considering the Central Asian states’ concerns of militant safe havens in Waziristan, the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will also boost their confidence in using Pakistani roads, railroads and seaports. In the trade-off, Islamabad will get access to the Caspian Sea states. Pakistan’s improved relations with Russia and the membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will be catalytic in building trade and cultural ties amidst evolving geostrategic order.

Risk of repeating history

In the past, with the disintegration of Soviet Union began the hymn of Pakistan being Central Asia’s gateway to the Arabian Sea. But over the next years, Islamabad remained consumed with the battle for Kabul, eventually leading to a wider and bloodier fight amongst the Afghan commanders.

At the time, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was pursuing the strategic vision of reaching the landlocked Central Asia but he laid the foundation stone of motorway between Islamabad and his beloved Lahore instead. As a result, the fighting in Afghanistan and the political wrangling in Pakistan left no time for the leaders and strategists to further augment the infrastructure. Even though, Central Asia and Eurasia have historic cultural, commercial and religious connection with the nation.



In May 2005, Pakistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan signed Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement but neither the uniform customs transit procedures nor other aspects have become operational so far. Moreover, Islamabad signed the Cross-Border Transport Agreement that was also signed by Bishkek, Dushanbe and Kabul but as mere observers. Later, Pakistan also signed an accord with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on road transport.

Unfortunately, SAARC characteristically remained flawed with the handicap of Indian domination and hostage to Pakistan-India tensions. Over the years, the hypothetical exploits of South Asian body looked even more far-fetched.

Possibility of a great start

Currently, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan depend on Russia’s Don-Volga Canal, which connects Caspian Sea states, including Iran, to the Black Sea. Pakistan can offer the landlocked states an alternative shorter route to the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, Iran is also mulling with Russia to build a mammoth canal connecting the Caspian Sea to the Arabian Gulf. If progress on CPEC is not marred by corruption, political controversies and delays, Pakistan can manifest its role as the only Central Asian state with a busy coastline. Thus, the Gwadar-Kashgar route has to be linked through Murghab sooner than later and the synergy will drive the rest. In fact, Pakistan is also a ready signatory to the ECO Transit Transport Framework Agreement.



Pakistan has almost completed paperwork to integrate itself as a trading partner with the Central Asia and the Eurasian states. The capacity of highways for heavy duty container traffic and efficiency at the seaport also leaves much to be desired. But without immediate prioritisation of road safety and security, and up-gradation of cargo rail services to the global standard, the emerging reality may turn out to be a mere fantasy.

For Pakistani business community, trade prospects with the Central Asian nations itself have enormous promise. Pakistan and Tajikistan, for instance, are pursuing modest trade target of $500 million, even though in 2011, the two nations did business for paltry $15 million.

Thereby, Islamabad will either work diligently in addressing economic and social woes besides reaching a political consensus on the projects of vital significance or risk losing the leverage by reliving the 1980s and 1990s.

Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets @naveed360