North Waziristan and Afghanistan

Pressure to carry out operation is even greater now, since deemed to have completed its commitments.

The winter is withering fast and the season to start a military campaign in the tough and rugged mountains of Afghanistan and that of Waziristan is fast approaching. The Americans don’t have much time as they have to signal, at least, partial success to their own people by mid-2011. To deflect the criticism on this issue, the Americans have since long been insisting that Pakistan now go after al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries in North Waziristan. The pressure to carry out an operation is even greater now, since the PakistanI military is deemed to have completed its commitments in assisting with the 2010 flood relief effort. Also, recent remarks by the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, who said that Pakistan was the “epicentre” of terrorism, are an indication in this regard.

Pakistan needs to consider the situation carefully with regard to cost and consequences. Launching such an operation in North Waziristan, especially in the absence of indigenous drone support; requires night vision devices and transport and attack helicopters and this will make the whole campaign far more expensive than in Swat and South Waziristan. One will also have to factor the likely possibility that the terrorists may retaliate in terms of attacking Pakistani cities. Furthermore, it would be fair to say that the whole exercise could also strain Pakistan’s already gas- and power-starved economy. And there are apprehensions that conflict in North Waziristan may change into a war between the two neighbours.

As for peace in Afghanistan, that will come about only if all segments of society have proportional representation in the government and in the composition of its security forces. It also has to be acknowledged that the Taliban are part of Afghan society and their ethnic background is mainly Pashtun, who constitute over two-fifths of the Afghan population. This is not to say that all Pashtun are Taliban, but most of them resent the fact that they are grossly under-represented in the country’s leadership ranks.

The best way to move forward is to give a greater role to Pashtun elders and chieftains in the Afghan government — this will act as a confidence-building measure, especially since their seats have reduced from 115 in the 2005 election to around 100 in last year’s poll.

At this point in time, Pakistan’s economic stability is central to its participation in the war against terror. In a recent meeting between President Asif Ali Zardari and President Barack Obama, the need to maintain a moderate democracy in Pakistan was underlined. That objective can’t be achieved without political stability in Afghanistan and economic stability in Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 22^nd, 2011.