Who calls the shots in Afghanistan?

Taliban are saying that the so-called Islamic Emirate has not authorised anyone to undertake negotiations

The fighting season in Afghanistan is gearing up and it is at least possible that the Taliban are going to complete their takeover of the province of Helmand. There was little let-up in the fighting over the winter months and the Taliban remain active across much of the country. Suicide attacks, particularly in Kabul, keep up the pressure on the government of President Ashraf Ghani and the peace process, such as it is, stumbles along. The latest pile of rocks in the road comes courtesy of the Taliban who are saying ‘unequivocally’ that the so-called Islamic Emirate has not authorised anyone to undertake negotiations on its behalf and that unless what it describes as the ‘occupation’ is ended, ‘black lists’ cancelled and freedom of movement restored, then there is nothing to talk about.

None of this is new and the Taliban demands have been consistent and consistently reiterated, seemingly to little effect on those seeking to bring them to the table. Perhaps surprisingly there is at least a sketch of a road map for peace formulated by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group made up of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the US. Talks that were expected to happen in the first week of March have not materialised. They were to be hosted in Islamabad and to a degree the credibility of Pakistan as an interlocutor and honest broker is on the line. The Foreign Office has announced a delay saying the talks will take place ‘soon’. ‘Soon’ rather like ‘tomorrow’ never comes. The recent admission by the prime minister’s adviser on foreign affairs that we have some leverage on the Taliban as their leaders are present in-country along with their families, and that they receive medical treatment here will come as little surprise — it was long rumoured and equally long denied. He also said that the Taliban only listen to Pakistan when it suits them — which is very much par for the course in terms of any negotiation that has been attempted with them since the mid-1990s when they seized power in Kabul. Stalemated or not, the Taliban have to be talked to. But expect no early result.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 8^th, 2016.

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