Crazier things have happened...

There is a theory doing the rounds in Pakistan, and call it a conspiracy theory if you will, that the outpouring of love and affection across Pakistan for Governor Taseer's killer was anything but spontaneous. It argues that the entire episode was a carefully orchestrated response by Pakistan's all-powerful security apparatus to suspected US plans of escalating its war on Pakistani soil in 2011.

The idea is that the only thing that can stop the Americans from using their troops on Pakistani soil, or extending their drone strikes to cities such as Quetta, is a massive assertion of extreme religious opinion in the country's major urban centres, which would create an illusion that Pakistan was tipping over. In essence, the plan is no different from the one that led to the sudden emergence of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, the most successful religious alliance in the country's history, that swept to power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the 2002 elections.

It may sound crazy but crazier things have happened in Pakistan. Nor would it be the first time that right-wing extremists have been rallied by the country's military strategists to serve their foreign policy agenda. In fact, there is not a single extremist group in the country whose roots cannot be traced back to some agenda, or the other, endorsed by our uniformed strategists.

I have never had much of an appetite for conspiracy theories because I find Pakistan mind-boggling enough as it is. But let us not forget that the security establishment's role in creating radical organisations such as the Sipah-i-Sahaba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad was once hotly denied by the rulers but is now one of the country's worst kept secrets.

So assume for a moment that there is some truth in what is being said. The obvious question it brings to mind is, do our policy strategists know what they are playing with?

Pakistan is a country that has been in a state of constant jihad for well over 30 years. From the Afghan war against the Soviets, to the insurgency in Kashmir, to the rise and fall of Taliban in Afghanistan, Pakistan has found itself lurching, from one conflict to the next, since 1979. This means that all Pakistanis under the age of 40 have grown up watching their country mired deeply in one religion-driven conflict or another. These under-40s, described by some analysts as the ‘war generation’, account for nearly 70 per cent of Pakistan's 180 million people. That is one hell of a radicalised constituency to deal with.

Societal changes unfolding over decades hardly ever become the kind of news story that can fit your typical news bulletin. But human rights activists in the country have for years been warning that the strains of radicalisation running through this constituency are, in essence, no different from the religious fervour that drives the Taliban.

What we have seen so far are only glimpses of this constituency's attempts to assert itself. It is drooling over killer Qadri, not because it loves the man but, because in him it sees a weapon with which it can bludgeon any opinion opposed to what this constituency has been conditioned to believe.

And unlike our saner elements, now reduced to a besieged, silent, leaderless minority, this constituency is steadily working towards clear-cut and well defined goals — ensuring killer Qadri's continued good health being its most immediate focus. If the killer goes unpunished, it may well be the point of no return that this constituency has been steadily pushing the country towards since hijacked jetliners crashed into the World Trade Centre nearly 10 years ago.

Can our civil and military leadership really be that reckless? Good that I don't have much appetite for conspiracy theories.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 16^th, 2011.