A resounding win

The PTI has scored a very considerable victory in the NA-154 (Lodhran-1) by-election, completely turning on its head its defeat in the 2013 general election. The battle for this constituency has gone back and forth for months, with accusations and counter-accusations flying back and forth, but this result does appear to finally lay the matter to rest. The PTI candidate, Jahangir Tareen, has convincingly beaten Siddique Khan Baloch, polling a reported 117,053 votes against the 73,247 of Mr Baloch. Thus far, there have been no cries of rigging or fixing that led to this outcome, and given that turnout was between 55 and 60 per cent, this result may be seen as a fair expression of the will of the people.

The result puts the brakes on the PML-N in Punjab where it has become accustomed to winning everything it puts up a candidate for. It has also demonstrated that not only can the PTI win in Punjab, it can win big. This was no marginal outcome, it was a message of crystal clarity to the mandarins of the PML-N that they are not invulnerable and that the PTI is going to be their most likely and credible challenger in years to come.

The result comes despite the visit by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Lodhran on November 6, at which in time-dishonoured fashion he tried to buy off voters with a multibillion-rupee development package. The voters chose not to buy it in this instance, instead voting for change. There really is a sense that the electorate is jaded with traditional politics and politicians, but the inconsistencies displayed by the PTI and its variable success in governance in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have yet to build a trust base that translates into anything like a landslide victory beyond by-elections. Its record at federal parliamentary level is far from stellar, but this by-election result is a clear indicator that the PTI has the capacity to challenge the status quo and is establishing itself as a party with a national footprint. The decline of the PPP everywhere is creating a vacuum — and the PTI may just fill it.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 25^th, 2015.

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