Turned tables: With the centre secure, all eyes now on Punjab

As the PPP-led government finds itself back in majority in the centre, the situation in Punjab has taken centre stage.

LAHORE/ISLAMABAD: As the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government finds itself back in majority in the centre, the political situation in Punjab has taken centre stage.

Earlier in the week, the chief opposition to the government in the centre, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), had upped the pressure on the PPP after the federal government lost majority in the house with the departure of key ally Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).

The PML-N, which is in power in Punjab with the PPP as its junior coalition partner, had demanded that the federal government implement a nine-point charter by February – audaciously giving the PPP leadership four days to respond in a clear “yes or no”.  The PML-N threatened that if the PPP did not respond by the deadline, which is to expire tomorrow (January 10), it would first de-notify its ministers from the Punjab provincial cabinet, and then consider other options.

That was when the PPP-led federal government was on the defensive having lost its majority in the National Assembly – and was at the mercy of the PML-N, which could have brought a successful no-confidence motion against the prime minister.

However, with the rejoining of the MQM, and the numbers back in its favour, the PPP is now better placed to not only resist such pressure, but apply some pressure of its own.

It remains to be seen what the PML-N will do once the deadline expires, but a rejuvenated PPP seems positioned to ignore the deadline. In fact, PPP leaders on Saturday took a defiant stance, saying that, while they would not quit the Punjab government, the PML-N could go ahead and de-notify its provincial ministers.

PPP Punjab President Imtiaz Safdar Warraich said that, in any case, PPP ministers in the Punjab cabinet have nominal power and status. He said that PML-N’s decision to force the PPP out of the government after January 10 had exposed its designs, and they would welcome the decision.

The number of ministries of the PPP in the Punjab government stood to be reduced by two in any case on Saturday as part of the province’s austerity drive that will see seven ministries being merged or abolished for the purpose of good governance.

On its part, the PML-N seems to have now gone on the defensive as of Saturday.

“We did not use the word deadline … We are not used to using such terminologies in our politics. We are waiting for the government’s response on the agenda we had put forward. At least they should respond in affirmative to give an impression that they wanted to improve governance,” a close aide of Sharif brothers said.

The statement of the PML-N leader, who is also a member of the parliament, indicates that the party is willing to show some flexibility as any drastic move can have implications for their party as well. The PML-N does not enjoy simple majority in the provincial legislature, and would have to deal with complexities of new allies to keep its rule intact.

In the Punjab Assembly, the PML-N has 171 seats, PPP has 107, PML-Q has 81, Independents five, PML-F three, MMA two and PML-Zia one. However, of PML-Q’s 81 legislators, 47 have reportedly defected.

PPP-PML-Q alliance in Punjab?

Reports suggest that the PPP has decided to challenge the PML-N government in Punjab and has asked its provincial chief and other office bearers to negotiate with PML-Q for an alliance.

PPP activists close to President Ali Zardari have ruled out suggestions from the prime minister’s camp to appoint a governor who is acceptable to the PML-N, The Express Tribune has learnt.

They said that the PML-Q leadership has apparently agreed to ally itself with the PPP in Punjab and asked the PPP leadership to contact the defectors’ forward bloc as well.

When asked about the PPP’s plan to negotiate with PML-Q dissidents, Warraich replied that every party has the right to negotiate with probable allies to strengthen the democratic system.

Warraich has asked around 10 PML-Q dissidents to pledge their support to PPP and leave the forward bloc in exchange for attractive rewards, disclosed sources in the rebel group within the forward bloc that comprises 10 young MPAs unhappy with Dr Tahir Ali Javed, a leader of the PML-Q dissidents. A decision by these 10 MPAs is expected in the coming days.

However, PML-Q’s forward block leader, Maneka, told The Express Tribune that 47 PML-Q members are with him and they would side with the PML-N in Punjab. He has called a meeting of the group on Tuesday to show their solidarity with the ruling party.

When the PPP imposed governor’s rule in Punjab, the unification group did not offer its support for a PPP-led government. For the last three years, the forward bloc has been unconditionally supporting the PML-N, said Maneka.

The members of the unification group will pitch for the office of opposition leader in the Punjab Assembly and contest the legal bar since they constitute the majority of the members of the PML-Q, he said.

New Punjab governor

Meanwhile, the PPP is mulling different options as the race has intensified among the contenders who are lobbying hard for the Punjab governorship in the wake of Salmaan Taseer’s assassination.

With President Asif Ali Zardari to make the decision as to who will be the governor of the PML-N led Punjab, different names have been popping up in the media. A series of meetings have already been held by the president in Karachi.

The pending decision for appointment of a new governor in the province is also closely linked to the probabilities of relations between the PPP and PML-N.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 9^th, 2011.