Voting for war

UK's decision to join the bombing campaign against IS may well be a historic misjudgment by British parliamentarians

The decision by the British parliament to extend the bombing campaign against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria will prove to be a serious error of judgment. British MPs voted 397-223 in favour of joining the coalition of nations currently conducting airstrikes against IS in Syria. The majority of 174 is larger than was expected by some commentators and commits the UK to fighting a war that it admits will not be won by airpower alone. The British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has said that the fight against IS is going to be “protracted” and could last years. Fighting IS in Syria from the air is very different to fighting IS in Iraq, and is going to be much harder.

The IS is unlike any other terrorist organisation of modern times. It is self-funded and extremely wealthy. It derives revenue from swingeing taxation in the lands it occupies and from oil which is extracted from fields in those same lands. The oil it sells finds a ready market, allegedly in Turkey as well as elsewhere in the Arab world, and in real terms is far better financed than either al Qaeda or the Taliban ever were or ever will be. It has laid the basis for a redefinition of statehood by creating a virtual and borderless state that has no international recognition; and has strength in depth militarily, partly derived from a core command group made up of officers previously in the army of Saddam Hussein.

Foreign fighters from more than 100 countries have joined IS and there is as yet not even a glimmer of an effective counter-narrative to the siren-song of the terror group. Bombing it, short of the carpet bombing that obliterated entire cities in the Second World War, is not going to defeat it either and would create civilian casualties in the tens of thousands. Aerial bombardment is likely having a counter-effect to that desired, and the IS response has been to send a team of eight or nine to Paris to wreak havoc, the consequences of which are there for all to see. History will be the final judge, but this may well be a historic misjudgment by British parliamentarians.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 6^th, 2015.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.