Stories from Dr Fahd Rehman
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Structural inflation and devaluation
Attempts to bring down inflation via conventional measures will be politically costly
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Structural inflation and stabilisation
Inflation reduction will likely come at expense of large output drop
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Balance of payments constraint
Growth in imports will put pressure on rupee whenever economy grows at high rate
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Country in slumpflation
Situation requires astute policymaking but political turbulence a stumbling block
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Political and financial turmoil
Jacking up of policy rate will further slow economy along with high inflation
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With rupee fall, economy slows
SBP cautious about raising policy rate despite massive currency devaluation
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Rampant commodity speculation
If govt does not intervene in market, it will lead to unfettered capitalism
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External vulnerability takes economy back to stabilisation
Ballooning trade deficit, depleting forex reserves force govt to resort to expensive borrowing
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Slumpflation and structural constraints
Export statistics increase to some extent, still exportable surplus is low
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Economy in slumpflation
Export growth fails to generate necessary forex reserves to finance imported goods