Stories from Dr Fahd Rehman
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Why Pakistan’s growth cycle keeps ending in IMF programmes
Under changed architecture, economy endures trade deficit in goods and services
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Policy framework and structural change
Successive govts have ignored traditional economic fundamentals such as high aggregate demand, real exchange rate
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Implications of high real rate and primary surplus
With high interest rate and surplus, income-GDP growth falls, tax collection shrinks while taxes are increased
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Securing IMF trust through financial strength
Financial position of developing states remains fragile; they can dip into crisis as confidence of lender drops
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In pursuit of capital
IMF programmes provide financing lifeline; remittances and import controls shape current account
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Negative carry trade and sterilisation
SBP conducts sterilisation operation by selling govt securities to mop up excess liquidity in banking system
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Are stabilisation measures backfiring?
High interest rates, import compression and regressive taxation leading to low growth, unemployment
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Speculation-led recovery, not real growth
In emerging situation, challenge for govt is to jump-start economy, create jobs
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Wheat support price and distribution system
Public system stabilises wild swings in food prices, but leaving it to market will be politically costly
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Economic stabilisation and disinflation
Stabilisation measures are taken to control excess demand mainly through high policy rate, austerity drive









