No room for war

Pakistan has rightly shown military restraint and we would urge it to continue to do so, no matter the provocation

The low-intensity conflict between India and Pakistan has for decades drained the physical and human resources of both countries, taken a steadya toll on military and civilian lives on both sides, and apart from ensuring that military budgets remain cripplingly high, little or nothing has been gained. India is not about to invade Pakistan and Pakistan is not about to overwhelm the Indian armed forces. The war on the Siachen glacier has seen more deaths and disabled as a result of avalanches and extreme conditions than by actual war-fighting and the conflict in the snows is more about ego, ‘face’ and symbolism than strategic advantage. India has spent fortunes illuminating the Line of Control (LoC), enabling it to be seen from space at night and the pot of bile is stirred by politicians and the media on both sides at various times, but with differing degrees of intensity.

The PML-N government has adopted a primarily dovish posture towards India since coming to power, but seems to have been thwarted in its quest for peace with the eastern neighbour due to several factors. As is currently the case, India has been involved in unprovoked firing across the LoC and the working boundary. Over the last seven days, the Indian security forces have been firing into Pakistan, claiming several civilian lives. Protests to the United Nations Military Observer Group seem to have had little effect and the Adviser to the PM on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, has called on the Indian government to cease firing immediately in the hope of restoring ‘tranquillity’. He also reiterated his government’s position in terms of extending the hand of friendship and cited the recent sudden cancellation of foreign secretary level talks as being a very unhelpful move by India.

The conflict between our two countries is as old as Pakistan itself. It has resisted resolution for as long as Pakistan has existed as an independent state and there is no sign of its resolution in the foreseeable future. Outright full-scale warfare involving large numbers of troops and air and naval assets is not an option, and both sides at least seem to be able to keep the conflict from escalating to the next level, at the same time as not taking the clear and unequivocal steps that would lead to its resolution. Powerful lobbies clearly have their own motives for ensuring that the LoC blows hot and cold. It must be remembered that artillerymen do not spontaneously fire their guns; an order has to come down the chain of command for that to happen. That chain of command goes up into the highest echelons of governance. It is true that sector commanders have delegated responsibility for the ordering of live fire, but they derive that authority from the government of the day — though perhaps more so in India than in Pakistan where civilian control of military matters is gossamer-light.

This conflict is going to be an impediment to development at every level. Pakistan and India should be active trading partners, they should be working together to mitigate the worst effects of climate change on their respective peoples and after 67 years, ought to have acquired maturity sufficient to allow the wisdom of a harmonious relationship to be of mutual benefit. Neither side seems to be willing to allow that to happen, with this pernicious impasse being laced with the vitriol of incidents such as those of recent days. This need not be, should not be. Thus far, the Pakistan side has rightly shown military restraint and we would urge it to continue to do so, no matter the provocation. Diplomatic channels remain open and they must be used to their fullest extent to dial back on this pointless and costly conflict before somebody, somewhere, fires a shell too many or too far.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 9^th, 2014.

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