Constituency profile: Ideology over individuals

In the Pakhtun dominated areas of Balochistan, the cult of personality doesn’t count.

QUETTA:

The electoral battle in Balochistan, at least as far as the Pashtoon majority districts are concerned,  looks as if it will be waged between the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) and the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. While the right-wing parties have deeply embedded roots in this area, the more moderate forces PkMAP, can also boast of growing support.

Either way, in this deeply tribal region, it becomes clear that it’s the ideology of parties, not the personal sway of individual candidates, that will determine the outcome.



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The National Assembly constituency for the Ziarat and Pishin districts is inhabited mostly by the Kakar and Tareen Pushtun tribes.

Compared to the 2008 elections, there has been a decrease of almost 15,070 votes. However, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the Pashtunkwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) still enjoy strong and separate vote banks: those of the religious viewpoint, and those of the nationalist viewpoint.

This time around, 16 candidates are in the run for the seat that has previously been won by the JUI-F. The party’s candidate, Molvi Agha Mohammad, was victorious in 2008, an election boycotted by the PkMAP, and remains a strong candidate even today. Recently, he was pronounced ineligible for having a fake degree, but then given relief by the court.

Although there are other candidates in the ring, notably Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) Muhammad Yousuf Khan Kakar and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Nawab Khan, analysts believe that Molvi Agha will ultimately lock horns with the PkMAP’s Muhammad Essa Khan Roshan, who also enjoys a considerable support base.

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The National Assembly seat in sprawling Qila Abdullah is perhaps the most crucial in Balochistan. Adjacent to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, it is also a Pushtun territory dominated by the Achakzai and Kakar tribes.

In the past decades, the JUI-F and PkMAP have both been successful in this region. Once again, they have fielded strong candidates – PkMAP chief Mahmood Khan Achakzai is contesting the seat himself, and is opposed by JUI-F’s Qari Muhammad Shair Ali, who stood after Haji Roz-ud-din was declared ineligible in the fake degree case.

However, this time, with 29 candidates vying for the seat, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Nazaryati (JUI-N) and the Awami National Party (ANP) also have significant support.

In 2008, PkMAP boycotted the elections, but they are back with a vengeance by fielding the popular Mahmood Khan Achakzai.

According to analysts, despite the presence of various strong contenders, the favourites at this point seem to be Achakzai, Ali and JUI-N’s Maulana Salahuddin Ayyubi.

With the religious vote bank divided between JUI-F and JUI-N, PkMAP may very well take home the crown.

The outcome is uncertain, but an interesting showdown is assured.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2^nd, 2013.