Obama’s new national security team and Pakistan

While Kerry as Secretary of State will be welcome, Brennan & his drone policy will be of primary interest to Pakistan.

US President Barack Obama’s new national security team would be of interest to all foreign governments, particularly so Pakistan, given the complex nature of its relations with the US, which are likely to assume criticality for both, as the post-2014 Afghan scenario begins to unfold.

Secretary of state-designate John Kerry is experienced and respected across the political divide; he is also familiar with foreign policy issues. Some view him as well-disposed towards Pakistan, but having worked with his staff for years, I know that he can be determined and tough as nails. Nevertheless, his stewardship of the US State Department would be welcome to Pakistan.

Obama’s nominee to head the defence department has, however, turned out to be controversial. A decorated war veteran, Chuck Hagel has espoused views that have not endeared him to his Republican colleagues, who view him as a maverick. Given his personal battlefield experience, he is an advocate of caution and opposed to reckless policies of some of his predecessors. Democrats are also worried about his perceived reservations about gay rights, but these pale in comparison with the campaign launched by pro-Israel groups, who accuse him of not being as unreservedly committed to Israel as is the norm in American politics. Senator Lindsay Graham has gone on to make the preposterous claim that Hagel would be “the most antagonistic defence secretary towards Israel in our nation’s history”, reminding everyone of Hagel’s 2006 remark: “The Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here. I am a US Senator, not an Israeli Senator.” Hagel’s nuanced view of Iran’s nuclear programme and his preference for the dialogue process, also runs counter to widely held views in the US and is one that may not be in sync with Obama’s public remarks either.

It is, however, Obama’s nominee for the CIA who should be of primary interest to Pakistan. John Brennan is close to the US president and as the White House counterterrorism chief has supervised dramatic escalation in drone attacks. His public advocacy of torture and similar interrogation methods had prompted human rights organisations to oppose his nomination four years ago. Moreover, having spent 25 years at the CIA, he is unlikely to bring fresh thinking to the agency or to abandon its discredited policies. Hopefully, however, his Senate confirmation hearing will be an occasion for a thorough review and reappraisal of the programme, starting with the issue of whether an intelligence agency should be engaged in paramilitary operations in foreign states.

With hawkish, powerful personalities, such as Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates gone, White House National Security Adviser Chief, Tom Donilon, should be more comfortable and able to structure a cohesive team, which shares, intellectually, Obama’s worldview. They and Joe Biden appear to also share the view that the Iraq and Afghanistan adventures have proven that the US can either be a global military power or an economically strong welfare state. The current budget calls for defence spending to decline from 4.3 per cent of the GDP to three per cent — the beginning of a process of defence reductions which will have to be maintained for a generation. This is the task Obama wants Hagel to oversee.

Most observers are of the view that the era of US military adventures has ended. With America’s lone ranger missions no longer sustainable, the emphasis will be on covert action, with drones and cyber warfare the weapons of choice coupled with modest military footprints around the world. Iran could, however, pose a huge challenge to this concept.

Pakistan-US relations appear to be moving in the right direction. Obama has publicly welcomed “recent steps” taken by Pakistan, referring to the release of Taliban leaders and encouragement to their participation in talks with Afghan officials. He has, however, urged Pakistan to take “more tangible steps” to promote genuine peace in Afghanistan, a gentle reminder that America’s own failings notwithstanding, Pakistan’s actions will remain under sharp scrutiny in Washington.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 16^th, 2013.