LAHORE:
Despite trenchant criticism from Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) is currently the most popular party in the country, a survey has shown.
The survey carried out by the International Republican Institute (IRI) posed the question that if the elections for the National Assembly were to be held next week, who were the respondents most likely to vote for. The results revealed a 3.7 per cent increment in PML-N’s popularity and a shocking 22.6% decline in PTI’s vote bank.
Conducted between July and August 2012 from a pool of 6,001 respondents, the survey compared results from an earlier survey carried out in February 2012.
According to the IRI survey, 28 per cent of the respondents agreed to vote for PML-N, closely followed by PTI at 24 per cent. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) took the third spot with 14 per cent votes whereas Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) polled 3 per cent.
Punjab
When asked about electing representatives in the provincial assemblies and the National Assembly, 43 per cent respondents from Punjab agreed to vote for PML-N. In spite of facing severe criticism with respect to its governance from rival parties such as PPP and PTI, the political party maintained its top position.
Furthermore, according to the survey, PTI lost 18.2 per cent of its vote bank, with 27 per cent of the respondents agreeing to vote for the party in July-August compared to an earlier 33 per cent.
A 22.2 per cent slash in PPP’s popularity was witnessed in the province, and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) was chosen by two per cent of the respondents.
Sindh
In Sindh, the PPP took the top spot, however, according to the survey, the party has lost its popularity in the province by 7.1 per cent.
The survey demonstrated an upsurge in MQM’s popularity, with a 22.s per cent increase in the party’s vote bank.
PTI took second place but witnessed a sharp decline of 13.3 per cent in its vote bank. No change was seen in PML-N and PML-Q’s popularity in Sindh.
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P)
A downward trend in political parties’ popularity was witnessed in K-P. Even though PTI remained the most preferred party with 30 per cent of the respondents agreeing to vote for it, it lost its vote bank by 38.8 per cent.
Similarly, according to the survey, the Awami National Party (ANP) lost 92.3 per cent of its vote bank with only one per cent of the respondents agreeing to vote for them in the current survey as compared to 13 per cent in Febuary 2012.
The PPP’s popularity also showed a sharp decline by 75 per cent as only two per cent of the respondents agreed to vote for the party.
There was no change in respondents’ preference for PML-N and nine per cent of the respondents agreed to vote for the party.
Balochistan
There was a downward trend witnessed in Balochistan as well. PTI took the top slot with 26 per cent of the respondents agreeing to vote for it. However, the party lost 38.8 per cent of its vote bank with an earlier figure of 35 per cent of the respondents favouring the party.
The PML-N was preferred by only eight per cent of the respondents.
Other concerns
According to the survey 91 per cent of the people believed that Pakistan was heading in the wrong direction. Respondents termed electricity and inflation to be the two most important issues being faced by Pakistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 29th, 2012.
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COMMENTS (134)
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PML N will win elections. And thats the bottom line since usman said so !!!!
guys just check out the full survey report....N league is now limited to raiwind http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=484521148247816&set=a.417300268303238.101542.417297901636808&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf
@sabi: for ur kind info he has already said that pti's popularity has gone down by 10%... n even according to this survey pmln will only get seats in central n north punjab... nwfp, balochistan and south punjab is still in hands of pti... sad the noora party is being most popular will get less votes than pti... nch nch
PTI Will Rock... mostly youngs will vote first time and their choice is only Imran Khan
To Sabi, Riz & others...
IK has very openly accepted this survey... Watch To the Point with Shahzeb Khanzada on Express News a couple of days ago in which he & other PTI members at other platforms have accepted the results of this survey and has taken as a challenge to work even harder to gain back the popularity... & Insha Allah we'll....!
All the way to PTI till my last breath
@Abubakar: My request to you brother as a PTI supporter ask Mian sahb to at least raise the Flag of Pakistan in Balochistan. He can't face public he is afraid of assassination. Your leader is a coward he even can't face his rival Imran Khan.What experience are you talking about ?. Do you know Nawaz got 2/3 majority in 1997. What he has done for country do you know when he was kicked off Pakistan was almost bank corrupt. we even don't have money to run the country. My father's foreign accounts were freezed. We haven't got that money yet in 2012. and that was the time nawaz sharif laundered all of his money to UK where his son is running the business of worth 500 Million pound. Don't try to make fool out of yourselves.
Media is misguiding people in Pakistan!! I blame media for Nawaz Sharief make popular.
Basically media is responsible for decreasing popularity of Imran Khan!
As every night people are doing programme against Imran Kahn and geting favor by Nawaz Sharif!! so general and less educated public is thinking Imran is not so good!!
Media is supporting status co parties in Pakistan,,
I dont know why PML-N is happy with this survey. Improvement is in friction. PTI Lost 10%, ANP Lost 11% and PPP Lost 2% where as PML-N gain is only 1%. This indicate that the people who did not support PTI, PPP & ANP at the same time they did not like PML-N. 1% rise with heavey media compain and Laptop, Jobs, & money distribution, they cannot change the results siginficantly. 1% veriation means no change amd this also means that PML-N has been failed the peoplels who did not like them.
This survey is positive for PTI because. 1- PTI is the only Party of Pakistan which have more than 10%populirty in all provinces of Pakistan. 2- As PTI Voter did not join PML-N despite of sever efforts of PML-N, PTI still have the chance to attract back its supporter.
Cannot be! PTI is by far the most popular party in the country; being a frequent traveller, I feel it everyday while interacting with Pakistanis from all walks of life, belonging to every corner of the country!
Cannot be! PTI is by far the most popular party in the country; being a frequent traveller, I feel it everyday!
It is the media stupid! IK work on media, take media to your side and the results change in favor of PTI.
Real survey is Election rest of all other surveys or reports are just the tools of getting and attracting funds from international and local resources nd nothing else.
@ Sabi, riz and similar people Imran Khan has accepted the poll... In your face ! This is how a true leader reacts !!! unlike noora kushti parties which blames others for any to everything once they are at the losing end. Let other survey come with stats of November after the peace march. You will know what a real democratic party is. We did manage to gain popularity at 33% we'll do it again inshallah :)
Well, Well, Well . Who cares for these paid and sponsored surveys? Pls visit ( www.ecp.gov.pk ) and see the results of by-elections in last 18 months, which is the genuin and only acceptabel survey. I think it should be sufficient to give them a shutt-up call !!!!!!!!!
Mr Nawaz Sharief No way for sixth time. even we give 100 times you can not do any reform. In these five PML-N fail to give one school syllabus to whole punjab. You are getting popularity because media is supporting you every night.
WHY SHOULD NS GIVE SIXT CHANCE??????
Look at the relative stability and progress which continues in Punjab despite no support from the Federal government. This alone tells us why people support PML N. Shahbaz Sharif has done a great job in maintaining developing and improving Punjab. The rest of the country also sees it. This poll does not surprise me at all given this reality.
Yes , i agree the result of this survey.Shahbaz shrief is hard working personality so he is right person. So he will surely do much for survival of pakistan at this age.
i think the same survey showed the PTI is the mst popular party in the country , that time noora league rejected that survey , bt nw they are happy vd tht , hates ov to u sir imran khan , who has accepted tht PTIs populart has came down but it will rise inshaa Allah
There is always a margin of error in these surveys, I guess around 5%, so what is the fuss about??
I can't find any such surveys on the IRI website. There is only methodology available and post of 18Sep2012 clearly says that results will not be released. Could some post the link where they have shown the results.
Can we actually have statistics here. Most of it is just calculated percentages to stretch the post. Please post actual statistics.
Looks good news for PML (N), but how these news are created is utterly unexplained.
How the respondents were chosen, which strata of life they represented, employment segments and income level. Were they rural or urban inhabitants. It looks a qualitative survey, so what were the answers like, in scales or in words.
And also did the respondents themselves filled the questionnaire or was left to the interviewers to fill the answers.
These issues are significant before arriving any hasty conclusions in a survey based approach.
PTI is disintegrating in front of our eyes. I used to be a loyal supporter of the party, but there palling around with the religious fundamentalists and Taliban has left a bitter taste in my mouth.
alhamdulillaha keep good work going. PML N
i was PTI voter but not anymore, like the survey results. now will PTI beardless mullas make alliance with jamate islami munfiq mullas, if PTI do then thats the end to the beginning of the end of PTI and that will prove that PTI is supported by establishment
I don't give a damn about popularity! My VOTE is for PTI!
thats true survey loads of my friends including me are not voting PTI and this perception has changed recently when politicians like sheda tali and establishment backed cadidates joined PTI .. i m happy PTI is losing they r like jamate islami, munafiq ppl just fooling pukhtoons
sharif brother game is over imran khan is the next leader of the pakistan
IK & PTI should not worry about these polls –even if another 1000 polls are carried out. We (the PTI supporters) must change the destiny of this country and the world by voting with our actions and words. The revolution is in offing-this is going to be the South-East Asia Spring (tsunami). If we end up having AZ & NS back in power then there will be no future. So Let’s do it for Pakistan.
@pk1: You ignored 99 percent of the news and crux of the message. You are a dis service to PPP.
PTI/IK should not worry about these polls-they can go on taking a thousand more. We MUST make sure to vote for PTI on the day with our actions and words. This is a revolution in offing-if this country ever needed one then this is it.
Although Imran Khan has accepted the results of the survey, some stats are very difficult to believe, for example ANP is supported by only 1% in KPK (sounds quite ridiculous) and MQM gaining significant popularity in Sindh? HOLD ON!! This is the same MQM that is acting nothing short of being PPP Karachi Wing, and it is gaining popularity in the period when PPP is going down and further down!! Anyways this a wake up call for PTI, and time for some remedial actions. Lets hope PTI comes good in the end and put an end to this miserable era of PPP, PML, MQM etc.
I say a big "NO to PML N" . He is the enemy of Pashtuns and I hate him.
PTI was the best choice but Imran khan showed his lack ogf guts to go after the most corrupt(PPP),mullahs(in genral) and and ethnic based politics(MQMQ).He chose only seemenigly weakest party ;PMLN for his harshest attackes..He did politicking instead of statesmenship.He abandonesd principles in favour of looking for easy central punjab votes.He did not prove himself to be the leader I thought he was.People saw through him and started to abandone.Thatis all to it.
@Saud: the same survey states that PPP popularity is down in the gutters. The only place PPP has any standing is in Sindh. PML-N has surely taken lead in Punjab and at national level but has no standing in other 3 provinces. The election contest will be between PTI and PML-N. Imran Khan accepts the survey results. PML-N in the past always ridiculed such surveys, we shall see what their stand is now ;)
My Vote is for PTI whatever happens. Noora League will not find place to hide in coming elections INSHALLAH .
@sabi: He has not, he accepts and wows to bring the voters back in PTI fold form the undecided category.
As I think people like me still support PTI and are going to vote for it. On the other side it is time for Imran Khan to pick up the reasons for decline in popularity and try to clear his position. I don't think the youth has turned back and majority of youths' support. It should be also mentioned in the survey whether the people who gave their opinion where from which age? I guess majority of them will not be young people.
tsssssnami.
firstly,vote for PTI will favour only PPP, secondly, it's clear why PTI opposes PML-N all the time. is she not seeing PPP's corruption and incompetency.now people are mature and they will not be deceived by PTI's propaganda
Popularity increases when their leader enjoyed whole summer in Europe. Pity this Nation.
I do not believe in these surveys because ground realities are completely different. Voters change their mind at the last minute. However I can assure that in Faisalabad 100% National Assembly seats and 90% seats of Punjab Assembley seats will be won by PML(N). There is no seat for PPP and PTI. Two or three provincial assebly seat will go to PML(Q). PTI in Faisalabad is distant fourth and most of its candidates will lose their guarantee money.
Good save us and our Pakistan from PMLN and PPP, this will give them a new era of corruption.
I wonder how could it possible a party that does not have any party grounds in Bolachistan, does enjoy most popularity. I feel there is again a new conspiracy by FA-Pass boots into Bolachistan in order to launch puppet government as they brought in 2008. Right now PTI can be the best party to deliver their notorious agenda of FA-Pass boots :P
Unfortunately old political forces have hit back with their dirty politics with a lot of money flowing in the media to create a negative impression of PTI. And they are succeeding for the time being but hold on tight, God willing the final push from PTI will be decisive in it's favor.
Just study the past and you will feel that kpk and balouchistan always show that they have their own free will and always go for a change in Punjab people say all but never tempted to go for a change .This is what happening right now PTI is supported by KPK N Balochistan Punjab is still enslave to most oppotunistic party in the history PML Sindh as usual in favour of PPP .Lets pray for the wave of change to flourish in punjab and sindh as well
@Dean: "In the end if there is one voter of PTI that will be me, at least I would be satisfied for not voting the corrupt and money launderers." Add me too. Only PTI, even if I am the only one voting...
Yes PTI popularity has gone down as per the survey.. but the writing of this author and TheNews shows clearly the money in play in media..
In IRI's Feb Survey PTI was 31% and PMLN 27% - and now PTI is 24% while PMLN 28%... How on earth is the difference -22% for PTI and +4% for PMLN ???
PMLN is +1% while PTI is -7%.. But conclusions above and in other papers show a totally different picture :o
In the end if there is one voter of PTI that will be me, at least I would be satisfied for not voting the corrupt and money launderers.
Even if PLM(N) wins and PTI comes in second, that will be good. A better government ( compared to PPP) and a better opposition ( compared to PLM(N) ).
So, it will be win win for country.
BTW, I am a PTI supporter.
Imran me and my family members are with you to get rid of despotic leadership of PML-N and PPP. Don't pay much heed to these skewed analysis, on ground awam is with you.
To those who said IK will now reject the poll go look at his interview in 8pm with Fariha Idrees where he said the polls are correct and there has been a decline in the percentage but you need to wait and see what happens next. As for all the N-league supporters why are you guys taking a U-Turn last I checked you guys didnt believe in these polls and that they didnt represent the 'awaam' so why are you so happy to see the poll result. LOL
The IRI has not released this survey neither is ot available on their website. Previous surveys published in Pakistani media were expressly discredited by IRI.
I dont accept i dont accept will be the mantra now from PTI :)
Its just so naive that YOU all are responding with such acceptance and rejection of this survey. I mean, wake up guys does this even remotely represent the on-ground reality of pakistani politics. Please, i mean i find these kinds of surveys hilarious. "Conducted between July and August 2012 from a pool of 6,001 respondents" Like really, HA HA HA, and there you all go, PTI and PML(N) lovers, lolz, get a life guys and please wakeup. This survey DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING.
Though the survey's findings may be contested; it is surely time for us, PTI, to pull up our socks (before sand is pulled from beneath our feet). With our current weak media strategy and the ever rising propaganda coupled with our own "All is Fine" attitude, PTI should be prepared for another "1997" in 2013. PTI is Pakistan's last chance and if we fail due to our laxity, we Insafians will be responsible for Pakistan's destruction over the next 5-years of a PPP / PMLN Damn-o-critic government. PERIOD.
I guess Basic reason of PMLn going up nd other parties going down is that all other parties cIncluding PTI , PPP , MQM nd PMLQ critiseze PMLn more ... so people of Punjab r thinking that why r all other oparties r anti PMLN ..... Now just remember the recent statement of Imran Khan that Punajb Govt is worse than pther provincila Govts nd fed Govt.... Now can any one belive this statment ????? so actuaally these kind of statements have helped PMLN...
The electricity crises has been generated because of circular debt, that is, people do not pay there bills. Nawaz Sharif Ittefaq foundaries are amongst biggest defaulters as can be proved from link below http://www.lesco.gov.pk/News&Media/5000071.asp
well PMLN surge is only 1% in previous IRI survey PMLN was at 27 now 28% .. no party have gained from PTI's loss .. and % undecided voters have been increased ... I think it is because of Media blackout of PTI ... but i am sure PTI will trend upward again once interim govt is in place ..
Survey kay results change hotay rehtay hain i do not reject survey results but at the election time PTI will InshAllah at ist position again
I shudder at the thought of PML N winning the next elections. We will be back to where we were- status quo!
PTI is national party and is symbol of Federation. It will clean sweap in cuming elections Inshallaha!
My vote is just just just for Imran Khan
No offences but it's a reality that PTIQ is not a party at all. It's rather a reaction to Zardari's worst governance and Mian Sahab's "responsible opposition." Our people who are 50% illiterate and 50% youth are not used to such type of "responsible opposition" which is a norm of parliamentary democracy. They have seen opposition of 90's and wanted it to repeat itself for their fun-fair. The earlier the Pakistani people realize the new political realities, the better it is. The era of 90's is gone. Now we have a vibrant media, a pro-active judiciary and fairly refined political class which has learnt a bit from the past.
Never Forget that Situation for PTI has gone even worse after the conduction of this Survey. So consider PTI under 20% now and PMLN more than 30%. PTI is regularly going down and PMLN, up :)
Its a two horses race and Nawaz will pip Imran at the winning post.
PTI has to learn lessons from its mistakes..inclusion of same old faces in the party, giving them top slots has really dented its vote bank...in punjab I would say, continous bashing of nawaz sharif by IK and the recent by-election results of multan has prompted the people to think that there vote for pti would indirectly be a vote for ppp..
It is time that IK show pragmatism instead of living in Utopia.
Will this send the ISI and the army into overdrive?
This was expected when BIG MONEY is on a role in Media..! Anyhow Imran Khan has accepted the survey result..!
My vote for PTI till my death. PMLN are cheaters and cheap.
This is how money works in media. Whole nation knows the dirty job PPP and PMLN has been involved in during all these years. They put our country at such a stage where there is everything on stake and NOW both of these changing nation's attention through social, TV, and paper media. BUT they don't understand the fact that PTI will really gonna sweap in the coming elections INSHALLAH. Nation loves PTI and will vote for it to win Inshallah!!!!
IK losing even before elections?
It's PML N Time! Insha-Allah- May Allah raise Pakistan to the highest of the heights!
The only outcome if you can't leash the trolls and their colourful behaviour on social media. I contributed towards that decline, can't stand PTI anymore.
People begin to know, any single vote to PTI will favour PPP.....
PTI is blessing to PPP in disguise, PMLN all the way...
Above discussion tells you that PTI is now not third force. It is now proceeding towards the 2nd top. We have always welcomed the pools.
After previous results, PML N spend huge amount. They gives Laptops to youth. They also spend huge amount on Media especially anchor persons and buy there remarks. In KPK and Baluchistan PTI is still No. 1. I think now when whole media is against PTI and all anchor persons are criticizing PTI for nothing maintaining no 1 position in KpK and Baluchistan is good achievement.
Given the fact that polls are an important indicators how people view the political parties keeping the forthcoming elections in mind. But in the conext of the current Pakistani politics it may not matter a great deal as it would have say in the UK, France or Germany. The reason is simple the urban and rural divide in our country is in such a state of flex that what people say at the time of survey may not neccessarily be true at the election time. In my opinion, PTI will bring in a real surprise and I'm afraid it could sweep the election. I say this because the people of Pakistan has seen the turmoil under PPP government and the kind of opposition PML-N has demonstrated. With due respect, I thought MQM, should have shown more maturity instead of playing the role of party pooper. For PPP, I think, Mr. Zardari may be tragic a character in the scheme of things. I'd no doubt that he mean't well when he donned on the mantle of the presidency and wanted to give Pakistan something good for the posteriety. Unfortunately he had too much on his plate such as the NRO, war on terror, US-PAK relationship, Afghanistan, the OBL episode, flood, tussle with the prime minister, corruption scandal under the PM and more importantly the relationship between the establishment and PPP. It is for this reason people are not going to vote in for PPP, PML-N, MQM and ANP. So the likely winner is going to be PTI and that too with a majortiy.
These are technically flawed surveys with special design to prmote the image/popularity of certain parties and to understate that of others. Frankly speaking (i m not an ANP worker) but i know the vote bank they have in mardan, charsadda, swabi, swat, buner and malakand. They have won all by-elections from kohistan, swat and recently a big win in mardan NA seat. I wonder who undertake these surveys for these socalled think-tanks? How do they do sampling? How do they ensure credibility and reliability. They are seriously misleading, and could even lead to chaos and bloodshed if actual results do not produce the picture they paint.. it is also the responsibility of the media to covrr them with caution.
@Satan: Oh really? hows that?
As a supporter of PTI its a good news. Now many of our leaders, supporters and workers will realize that we have to work harder.
Whatever! My vote for PTI.
I think people are becoming disappointed with anything less than ideal from PTI. Perfection in politics doesn't exist. Exactly why people are choosing PML because of this is beyond my comprehension.
Sheeren Mazari was right...!
How credible & correct these surveys are .. Can't be said but one thing is clear that Pakistan is facing a real threat due to Balochistan matter and only PML-N is taking it seriously ... Mian Nawaz Sharif having good will among Balochs can be the best person to lead this country and unite everyone again... otherwise, God forbid, 1971 may not repeat ...
So, PTI may sound quite charming or attractive but it lacks the experience & competency to run the country ... Only good intentions can't get us out of this mess ... we need solid competent and diligent leadership which can be found in PMLN ... So everyone is requested to vote for Pakistan and not make it an ego of personal choices based on fake logic ... God bless Pakistan & may we are able to appease our brothers & sisters in Balochistan ...
Masha'Allah.
Sigh.Seems PML-N knows exactly how to influence the public perception. Experience counts afterall. PTI needs to work hard on its 'Tsunami'. May God save Pakistan!
The results revealed a 3.7 per cent increment in PML-N’s popularity and a shocking 22.6% decline in PTI’s vote bank.
The march to Waziristan will be a game-changer for Kaaptan Khan. Hold your breaths...
Poll suggesting PTI is causing serious damage to opponents in provinces other than punjab. It's time for a new pole :)
3.7%? Not even a ripple, . 7% to 24% in one year and still going,.Tsunami!
Yes! This will only make people more determined to get more people with them to actually go and vote for PTI!. Blessing in disguise.
PML(N) rockxxxx....
Original Link of that survey result?
It just got more interesting between the two rivals.
Well! it was always on the cards. Not surprised.
It is interesting to note the results of survey carried out by International Republican Institute (IRI). However the shocking fluctuations make the predictions doubtful. Every where in the world such surveys are made but never ever so drastic fluctuating predictions are made. Might be institute has to seriously consider its sampling of voters. At least I do not agree to the predictions
I think PMLN is going to be sweep next elections INSHALLAH.
PTI is national party enjoy support everywhere.
PML-N could not be dented by Pasha Tehrik-e-Infaaq!
Good going PMLN People are now realizing that PTI cannot bring any change. Voting for PTI will only help PPP come back to power for another 5 years.
In the end, principle stand of PTI will prevail. It is going through its toughest time that was predicted by all political pundits. It is going through forming stage and soon it will be in performing stage. Let the intra-party election starts and settle down.
What I see happening now is the army of PTI supporters questioning the integrity, motivation and timing of this survey and ridiculing and verbally-abusing the anti PTI tilt.
Those would be the very same PTI supporters who would not balk at celebrating any remote survey that would have showed PTI leading and not following !
I find PTI supporters as too emotional, trigger happy and very black and white. 'Either you are with us or against us' type approach.
PTI needs maturity, wisdom and the ability to take criticism in its stride, the same way most political parties and their supporters do.
Interesting !
If only this party distances itself from the right wing hawks, I would prefer them in power than the failed PPP or Taliban-esque PTI.
PTI really needs to distance itself from Taliban-pandering and outline its policies clearly.
It is too hand in glove with the religious right which is hellbent on isolating Pakistan globally and in fast-tracking the radicalisation of our people.
PPP has literally given up its secular roots and now appears to go to any length to pander to the mullahs.
Only MQM seems to have the spine to stand up to Taliban.
Interesting times ahead.
pti whats up?
This time IK will reject this pole survey as conspiracy by nawaz sharif.Anyways tsunami has not hit on ground but sure on papers.