This is just one factor and linked to other developments that go beyond the region but which have already begun impacting South Asia and its economies negatively.
The SDPI-convened summit identifies at least three other broad trends:
First, the effects of the global financial crisis are likely to linger on longer than was originally projected. “This,” as the SDPI concept note for the conference argues, “has been validated by the eurozone crisis that has already started to impact South Asia.” The second factor relates to the 17th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held at Durban. This is being viewed as an important step towards combating global climate change. Third, there is growing awareness that regional development is crucial to combating the negative global trends and the region’s future depends on economic cooperation. This realisation has already set in and the 17th Saarc Summit, which was held in the Maldives in November last year, witnessed the signing of some important agreements between member states.
An additional factor relates to the normalisation process between India and Pakistan, the two big players within Saarc. For long, adversarial relations between the two — manifested by hot wars, low-intensity conflicts and, at best of times, a cold peace — have held regional cooperation and development hostage. Two positive developments have the potential to change that: after the post-Mumbai freeze, India has come round to accepting the fact that disengagement does not make a sound policy and it needs to resume the composite dialogue with Pakistan; two, Pakistan has come round to the view that it needs to fast-track economic ties with India — trade and investment — without compromising its position on disputes such as Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek etcetera but not making them a precondition for economic cooperation.
This change is begotten of a shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy, which assigns top value to improving relations with all the neighbours within the region and beyond. Internally, this change is related to another significant development: the country’s foreign policy, which had taken a backseat to its security policy, is emerging as the arbiter of the security policy rather than the other way round. Externally, it is linked to deteriorating relations with the United States which have necessitated diversifying and gaining more state adherents for Pakistan’s position on the Afghan conflict and its resolution.
The recent visit to Pakistan of India’s External Affairs Minister SM Krishna and the signing of agreements on a new visa regime and cultural and other exchanges manifests this new trend. To be precise, nothing substantial has happened as far as the disputes are concerned; the progress made by the two sides on Kashmir, as also on Sir Creek, between 2004 and 2007 hasn’t reached fruition. On Siachen, India has hardened its position, calling for extending and delineating the line of control from NJ9842. The assumption is that Siachen is not a disputed area and once the line has been demarcated and delineated, both sides will be free to do what they please on their side of the line. The problem with this approach is that the conflict relates to which direction the line may be extended to — and that persists. That said, Pakistan, in keeping with its policy shift, is striving to normalise with India. Its focus on trade and investment is an indication of that engagement despite other problems, including India’s actions in Afghanistan.
The SDPI summit, which brings together the largest gathering of experts from the region, is therefore an excellent effort to give policy input in multiple areas: sustainable development; climate change; regional energy corridors; food security; trade; water crisis; agriculture; regional transport corridors, communications, etc.
The summit offers an extensive agenda with an eye on the fact that the eurozone crisis has already hit the economies of South Asia, multiplying problems and throwing up a myriad of challenges for governments in the region: “India and Bangladesh have officially reported the status on cancelled export orders. Pakistan fears that migrant workers in the EU may be laid off in big numbers, which in turn, may result in a decline in future remittance inflows. Afghanistan has indicated that aid flows from EU may be slashed on account of already high budget deficits being faced by leading member states, including France, Italy, and Spain.”
The situation offers challenges that cannot be tackled by individual states and governments. Equally, the situation offers the prospect of formulating cooperative policies and strategies, which can bring the South Asian states together and detoxify them by creating interdependencies. Some developments already indicate a positive trend. The 17th Saarc Summit saw the signing of several agreements like the Saarc agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters, agreement on Multilateral Arrangement on Recognition of Conformity Assessment, the Saarc Seed Bank Agreement and the agreement on Implementation of Regional Standards.
Much work still needs to be done. It is a good time for think-tanks and policy communities in the various states to give their inputs to the governments to ensure that there is substantive movement in the areas of concern. The challenges also offer opportunities and this is what the 5th South Asia Economic Summit aims to highlight. However, policy input needs to become both relevant and tenable. And that, ultimately, is a function of political will. Pakistan’s commitment to this cooperation is indicated by the fact that the summit’s final plenary will be addressed by the foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, on September 13.
Best suited she is to close the summit because she brings her understanding of economic affairs to bear on her remit as the foreign minister.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 12th, 2012.
COMMENTS (43)
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@Lala Gee:
A.draw a straight 90 degree vertical line from point NJ980420 up to the China border
B.Of course, you can do that too if you like, but even that wouldn’t shift the line an inch towards east or west, because true north always point to the center of north pole.
Now I understand your confusion. Someone forgot to teach you that Two Dimensional Euclidean Geometry does not apply to three dimensional objects and perhaps they did not teach you about Longitudes too.Straight Lines on a Spherical Object (the Earth) are known as Tangents.
Now, True North or Centre of the North Pole is at 0 degree of Longitude, and if you are trying to get to 0 degree Longitude from 76-77 degree east (where NJ 9842 is located), you can not help but veer to the WEST. So where do we reach?
And one last thing, I am a big fan of the Indians’ intelligence, more than you realize.
You just received a resounding proof.
@observer:
"@Lala Gee: Why to the China Border? Where is the reference to China Border in the Simla Agreement? If Anything draw a line North and the only True North is the North Pole. Where does that lead?"
Of course, you can do that too if you like, but even that wouldn't shift the line an inch towards east or west, because true north always point to the center of north pole. However, by making claim over half the world by India would be met only with ridicule. And one last thing, I am a big fan of the Indians' intelligence, more than you realize.
@Lala Gee:
draw a straight 90 degree vertical line from point NJ980420 up to the China border
Why to the China Border? Where is the reference to China Border in the Simla Agreement?
If Anything draw a line North and the only True North is the North Pole. Where does that lead?
(Moderator: Lets see what in my comment is offending the comments guidelines this time?)
@observer:
Lets do it in standard Geography way. Open in your browser this map of the area published by the United Nations Cartographic Section (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/Un-kashmir-jammu.png) in which LOC, point NJ980420 (last marked position on LOC), the Sia Chen glacier, and all the important passes are clearly marked. Now, to truly follow the "thence north" clause, draw a straight 90 degree vertical line from point NJ980420 up to the China border. You will see that this line intersect the Sia Chen glacier somewhere in the middle and the 'Bilafond La' and 'Sia La' passes, currently occupied by India, fall on the west (Pakistani) side of this extended LOC. Now, if you guys have any decency and honor, you should vacate these passes ASAP and retreat back to your side of LOC.
@Lala Gee:
Why not to do the math yourself and see where is the true north on a map. Is that too difficult?
If it is that simple, why not simply give the 'math' instead of a lot of verbiage? Just get the coordinates of the NJ9842 and Siachin on a map and see.And please don't tell me that the coordinates were systematised by the unbelievers.
A fifth grader can do it easily.
A Fifth Grader with the help of Pakistan Studies or without?
@observer:
"Forget all speculation. Read the facts in the words of a retired Brigadier of the SSG’"
You want us to forget all the agreements and the opinions of hundreds of experts, much much more knowledgeable in their relevant fields, but only believe this one man who either by composing mistake or by his own negligence wrote 'north west' as 'northward'.. Why not to do the math yourself and see where is the true north on a map. Is that too difficult? A fifth grader can do it easily. Or better yet, ask your own toddler to extend LOC on a map and see where the line exactly goes.
@Lala Gee: "Anybody having average intelligence and basic English language skills can see that India blatantly violated the Simla Agreement by unilaterally altering the Ceasefire Line beyond point NJ9842 which was the last demarcated point on the Ceasefire Line by extending it to the glacier"
And what might someone who has basic English skills and average intelligence conclude about Kargill?
Coming back to the allegation of unilaterally altering Ceasefire line beyond point NJ 9842, I think Ashok has already provided you a reference which clearly indicates that NO unilateral alteration was done by India.
@ashok:
"This portion of the cease-fire line shall be demarcated in detail on the basis of the factual position as of 27 July 1949 by the local commanders, assisted by United Nations Military Observers”
Please read carefully the above quoted part and pay special attention to highlighted words and read it along with the clause (ii) of the Simla Agreement. India not only violated the Simla Accord but also this Agreement of 1949. Remember Indian Army occupied the Sia Chen glacier in 1984 not before 27 July 1949.
@Lala Gee
Simla,,,North,,,,,Blah Blah....
Forget all speculation. Read the facts in the words of a retired Brigadier of the SSG'
On the other hand, Pakistan’s stand is that beyond NJ 9820420, the LOC should extend eastward up to the Karakoram pass. Extending the LOC northwards would give the entire Siachen Glacier-Saltoro area to India, while extending it eastward would give it to Pakistan.
Can you understand the words, 'Extending the LOC northwards would give the entire Siachen Glacier-Saltoro area to India,. Do you now know what is meant by NORTH in Simla Agreement.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/368394/the-fight-for-siachen/
Modern wars are not fought on battlefields but on economic strengths. USSR lost to US not on battlefield but because of faulty economic model which was based on untested ideology . It took 70 years and 2 generations for the state to implode. Pakistan has lost to India in this cold war of last 65 years . To imagine that it has a capacity to alter the position in bilateral disputes with status quo power India is unrealistic empty pipe dream. it is better for the world and Pakistan to move on in building its own institutions, improving governance, forsake failed ideology and build solid base for its economy.
@gp65:
"@Lala Gee: .... Simla agreement also said that the LOC extents due north to the glaciers from NJ9842."
This is what I have posted in the morning and the moderator trashed this harmless piece.
@gp65:
Well the agreement signed by Pakistan says “and thence north”.
I read this claim of Indian commentators so many times that as per ["Simla Agreement"][1] the LOC will extend from NJ9842 "thence north", but I fail to verify this claim from the text of the agreement available on wikipedia. Do you mind providing some authentic online link for the benefit of the all.
[1]: http://simla agreement
Abid Suleri as fake as his SDPI gets all intellectuals and paid team! hello what world is this! He deserves to be behind bars for funds misappropriation and fraud!
@Lala Gee: "“(ii) In Jammu and Kashmir, the line of control resulting from the ceasefire of December 17, 1971, shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this line"
Excellent. Simla agreement also said that the LOC extents due north to the glaciers from NJ9842. By this definition, Siachen is on Indian side of LOC. So is Kargill.So India did not violate the agreement in 1984 as accused by Pakistan Pakistan did in 1999. If you recall Musharraf had pretended that Pakistan army was not involved in Kargill until it was proven otherwise. Similar to the Mumbai situation where it initially even denied KAsab was a PAkistani.
But why is a country that claims to be part of 'Greater Middle East' worried about poor South Asia?
Any idea?
Quite a climbdown, from dreaming to be the leader of the Islamic world to a bit player in South Asia.
@Lala Gee
You have pasted parts from Shimla Agreement, now make an effort to read them
@Lala Gee: "Which part of “Simla Agreement” you do not understand-- Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this line.” and than Kargil happened. In your book 1948 invasion of Kashmir, Kargil and destruction in Mumbai were all same done by non state actors for the benefit of Pakistan. If we can get away with it than they are our boys otherwise we do not know who they are e.g. own (Kashmir) disown (Kasab, Kargil Shaeed).
Moving of the national focus of Pakistan from "security" to "economy" is definitely a good step. Lets see what all Pakistan has to offer in the field of Regional Economy!!! Our experience in their contribution in the field of regional "Security" has been far from good!!!
A more subdued article from from Mr. Haider (and look, no quotations!), although he can't help himself, for reasons we know not of, to bring in Siachen (there has already been an extensive discussion some time ago when he focused on it in an article), water, India in Afghanistan etc. on all of which India's positions are well known. So what was the point of this report? Don't we also know of Pakistan's deteriorating relations with the US, how is that for God's sake, going to get more "state adherents" to Pakistan's position on Afghanistan? The fact of the matter is that unless Pakistan changes some of its basic policies towards India and Afghanistan, it won't find an "adherent"in Delhi. He is wrong on two other counts, India will not forget Mumbai, and that Pakistan is a big player in South Asia. There are no trade links, joint ventures, India and Pakistan have differing strategic perceptions and so on. Regrettably, unless it decides on a fundamental change of policies, Pakistan will continue to be seen as a rentier state for the Americans, a virtual Chinese vassal and an eternal supplicant at the Saudi court.
"India and Pakistan, the two big players within Saarc" ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ One a big international migraine!
@Mahakaalchakra:
"Which part of North and Glacier, the learned author is unable to understand."
Which part of "Simla Agreement" you do not understand? Doesn't the clause (ii) of Simla Agreement specifically states:
"(ii) In Jammu and Kashmir, the line of control resulting from the ceasefire of December 17, 1971, shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this line."
Pakistan is a "big" player in South Asia. Always seeking parity where none exists.
Pakistan in South Asia? Really? Since 1930s, Its leaders rejected India - got a separate homeland based on religion, and then claimed themselves to be extensions of the Middle East - ancestry and geography! Now they want to be in South Asia!
In closing her address why can't their Foreign Minister just claim that they are Pakistanis and proud of it?!
@ Mr. Ejaz Haider
A reality check Pakistan is not a big economic player in south Asia
compare the Bangladeshi economy they are way better than Pakistan
Pakistan does not have the means or the money to sustain her economy and maintain balance of payments to avoid loan defaulting all thanks to increased military defence spending during Zia and musharaf times that has caused the Pakistani economy to live on IMF support. Had the money been utilised properly Pakistan would not need IMF or USAID to bail herself out .
the only way Pakistan can get FDI into its coffers is by investing properly in its people and industry and after a period of 10 years the Pakistani economy could emerge as a strong sustainable and stable economy Pakistan still has a long way to go.
@Atia Ali: The correct credit for Its economy Stupid quote goes to Mr. Chester James Carville, Jr. and not to Clinton. It is easy to say we need to focus on economy but difficult to do. You need peace, law and order, correct policies, credibility in the market and in global village and need to bring women in the workforce. Under present circumstances none of it is possible. No one wants to pay taxes, no money for energy and you know the rest. Start from cutting aid to non state actors.
“other problems, including India’s actions in Afghanistan.” Kettle is calling pot black. Taliban are home grown group and were in power in Afghanistan a golden age for Pakistan. Only three countries in the world recognized Taliban government Pakistan, KSA and UAE. It is not India’s problem that this hoodlum did not knew how to govern. They were violent and disrespect the very people they were supposed to govern. If they lost the war than accept the defeat gracefully. Every country in the world except Pakitan recognizes the reconstruction effort of India and destruction work of Pakistan. You still have the gall to call action of India in Afghanistan is problem. If it is a problem take it to Security Council. Pakistan is members of Security Council take it there because talk is cheap and getting resolution passed in SC of UN is hard work.
This is a balanced Op Ed considering the others by the writer in the past. It says "This change is begotten of a shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy, which assigns top value to improving relations with all the neighbours within the region and beyond. Internally, this change is related to another significant development: the country’s foreign policy, which had taken a backseat to its security policy, is emerging as the arbiter of the security policy rather than the other way round." No wonder the rightwing enemies of democracy are doing their best to derail the democratic process. It is to the great credit of the flexibility and patience of coalition govt that has not given any big excuse to mullah/military/judiciary alliance to derail both democratic and peace process. Thanks for writing a fair Op Ed.
Expecting Indians to give up access to Karakoram pass in Saichen is asking Indians to send their army to China for dinner. PAK should stop the bidding for China in Saichen matters.
The objectives of the economic summit are heavily skewed in PAK's favor. The rest of the SAARC nations are not hampered by PAK's obtuse standing in international matters. so, PAK can either follow or stay behind and wallow.
I don't really understand why this writer keeps focusing on the India-Pakistan angle with a false sense of importance. The two big players within SAARC, etc etc.
SAARC is really one huge player and bunch of little players. And among the little players, Bangladesh is easily the most important. It is bigger than Pak numerically, with higher GDP growth, and way less Islamic radicalization. And, Bangladesh can provide skilled low cost labor for indian multinationals at lower risk of physical danger, which is very beneficial. It is hard to imagine a similar potential in Pakistan. Sorry to be blunt, but what is pakistan good at besides some raw material exports (mango, cotton, etc). Perhaps someone here can help paint that picture and turn this vacuous article into a fruitful conversation.
@Lala Gee: "The current trade between Pakistan and India is a one way traffic which needs to be made two way so that both the countries benefit from the mutual trade relations."
Exports and imports are based on competitive advantage. 60% of Pakistan's exports are cotton and textles. Pakistan does not have competitive advantage in terms of textiles and Pak exporters prevent cotton export to India. Surely there is scope for import of vegetables from Pakistan but given the perishable nature and lack of cold chain infrastructure in both countries, they would not address the whole country as a market but just the neighbouring states. So can you please suggest what specific products does Pakistan have available for export that India refuses to import?
The reality is that in the last 65 years India has significantly broadened its emport basket and Pakistan has failed to do it. This is not a problem you can blame on India.
Secondly, you are not correct when you say that India exporting goods to PAkistan benefits only India. Yes India benefits from associated employment impact. But PAkistan also benefits through inflation lowering impact. If something is cheaper in India and can go to Punjab/Sind through relatively lower transportation costs, it does reduce inflation in Pakistan where double digit inflation for 5 years HAS significantly robbed the average Pakistani of buying power.
"On Siachen, India has hardened its position, calling for extending and delineating the line of control from NJ9842. The assumption is that Siachen is not a disputed area and once the line has been demarcated and delineated, both sides will be free to do what they please on their side of the line. The problem with this approach is that the conflict relates to which direction the line may be extended to — and that persists. "
Well the agreement signed by Pakistan says "and thence north". SO it is clear what has been agreed. Of course Pakistan WANTS to extend it in the North East direction to Karakoram Pass. So the problem really is that Pakistan wants to backtrack on what it agreed. IT wants to do that in a situation where it has zero leverage because Indian army IS in Siachen and Pak army is NOT.
Same thing with Indus Water Treaty. India did not violate the treaty even in 1965, 1971 or 1999 despite grave provocation. Pakistan's own water commissioner says that there is o evidence at this time of India stealing water - just a concern that it could in future if dam was built. The dispute related to the dam which is a cause of future concern for Pakistan is with the arbitration panel which is the defined dispute resolution forum and India has not made any statement that it will not abide by whatever the decision. So accusing India of stealing water from the rooftops is just a way to keep the hatred and fear alive from a country that has NEVER attacked you.
The title reminds one of Waltz's argument "more [nuclear weapons states] would be better. I agree with Mr. Haider's main contention that we need to focus and debate more how to improve our economy. History is economics in motion (Durant) and it's economy, stupid! (Clinton)
The current trade between Pakistan and India is a one way traffic which needs to be made two way so that both the countries benefit from the mutual trade relations. Last year Pakistan imported from India about US $3.2 billion worth of goods and another US $4.5 billion worth of goods via Dubai, meanwhile India imported only about US $0.4 billion worth of goods from Pakistan. There must be a mechanism in place to ensure some symmetry in the value of trade else Pakistan would a net loser at the cost of its own industry and jobs.
The author seems to suggest that the reduced state hostility towards India is influenced by deteriorating US-Pak relations and is a short-term tactical measure and does not reflect a change in the state sponsored enimity towards India, of which he himself has been a proponent. As always, he seems unable to write a paragraph without mentioning Kashmir.
Why only women are brave in pakistan,can some one explain, Fatima Jinnah Benazir Bhutto Sherry Rehman Asma Jehangir Amin janjua Bina Malik ?
Good to see both India and Pakistan are moving forward on the trade front. Hope this process move forward as this could be the biggest CBM to resolve other complex issues later.