IPO anniversary: A year on, Engro Foods wins over the sceptics

Published: August 14, 2012

The stock started trading at Rs25 per share on August 11, 2011 and has since skyrocketed, closing at Rs68.41 per share on Monday, August 13, 2012.

KARACHI: 

If you had invested Rs100,000 in the Engro Foods initial public offering (IPO) last year, you would have had Rs273,640 if you had held on to the stock till the close of trading on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on Monday.

That translates into a 174% return over the past year. As the Engro Foods IPO turns one year old, many analysts who had hitherto been sceptical of the company and its valuation have since come around to viewing the stock more positively.

At the time of its IPO, many market participants had voiced concern that the issue was being priced too high. The listing price of Rs25 per share was more than 25 times what were then the projected 2011 earnings of the company, a steep premium over what was then the prevailing market price-to-earnings ratio of less than eight. Many asset managers who spoke to The Express Tribune then said they would buy a limited number of shares. Analysts at KASB Securities, widely regarded as the most respected research team in the country, was at best lukewarm to the issue.

But it seems that the sceptics were wrong, and that the Engro executives were right when they insisted that the price would skyrocket once the lock-in periods for the foreign investors expired. The stock started trading at Rs25 per share on August 11, 2011 and has since skyrocketed, closing at Rs68.41 per share on Monday, August 13, 2012.

Engro Foods has handily outperformed the broader stock market. During the period that the stock has yielded 174%, the benchmark KSE-100 index has gone up 32.4%, a respectable show, but nonetheless much less than the returns earned by the few who believed in Engro Foods enough to buy it at the IPO and stick with the stock for the year.

This performance goes beyond even the wildest expectations of even the most optimistic of analysts. JS Global Capital and BMA Capital had both been bullish on the stock, but neither had predicted more than a 60% 12-month gain from the IPO price. As a result, even the sceptics at KASB now appear to have a more positive outlook on the stock, calling it “the most liquid play on consumer spending in Pakistan.”

At these levels, however, many analysts, especially those at AKD Securities, appear to feel that all of the positive news about the company has already been priced into the stock, which is currently trading at 28 times estimated 2012 earnings.

The outstanding performance of the company stands in sharp contrast to that of its parent conglomerate – Engro Corporation. The divergence between the two can be gauged by a single statistic: over the past month, Engro Foods has had a higher market capitalisation than its parent company for 20 of the past 25 trading days.

Over the past year, investors in Engro Corporation have lost about 10.9% of their money, largely due to losses at the conglomerate’s fertiliser business, which has faced prolonged shut-downs of its $1.1 billion urea manufacturing unit – the Enven plant, owing to a nationwide shortage of natural gas, the raw material needed to produce urea. With election season around the corner, there appears to be no end in sight for the gas crisis in the country.

Engro Fertilizers still has the greatest potential to earn revenues and profits for the conglomerate, but Engro Foods appears to be unencumbered by a reliance on government largesse. (Engro Fertilizers gets its natural gas at a very heavily subsidised rate of $0.75 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), compared to the prevailing international price of liquefied natural gas of around $18 per mmbtu.)

Published in The Express Tribune, August 14th, 2012.

on Twitter, become a fan on Facebook

Reader Comments (4)

  • M_ALI
    Aug 15, 2012 - 12:07AM

    Asad Umar together with his team has led this Company to prosper in such high pace and growth.

    Recommend

  • Wellwisher
    Aug 15, 2012 - 10:55AM

    Engro has even higher potential (both food and Corporation) , just give them Gas and then sit back and relax as they will generate Revenue and resources (Thar Coal, engro is at most advanced stage among others) for country .

    Recommend

  • consumer
    Aug 15, 2012 - 3:12PM

    Engro Foods: one trick pony using premium branding and pricing strategy and passing on the burden of input costs to the consumers.

    No wonder the stock price is up. Any company would be happy to have a captive consumer market. Give consumers choices and then see the tamasha (as in telecom sector) of falling prices.

    Conclusion: Engro Foods’ premium pricing strategy good for company, bad for consumers.Recommend

  • Khalid Mahmood Qamar
    Sep 11, 2012 - 3:27PM

    I am the shereholder of engro foods. It is excellent performance during a year. It is expected that Engro Management will work with the same spirit for next year & made the company best in the world, as it has recovered eartlier accumulated loss. This will impact in the cash outfolw of the company @ 35%, therefore, the management may make strategic planning to maintaining & gaininning the competative advantage to increase sale for continuety of the growth factor more than expected in the next year.

    Khalid Mahmood Qamar

    Recommend

More in Business