Entering the endgame

As the US intensifies its search for credible Afghan interlocutors, some rethinking is also taking place in Islamabad.

When Defence Secretary Robert Gates begins to lament the shortcomings of his Nato allies, and when that doyen of the US national security establishment, Dr Henry Kissinger, talks publicly of the inevitability of an American withdrawal from Afghanistan; it is time we woke up to momentous events in the offing.

Admittedly, much water has come down the Kabul River since US President Obama was cajoled into sending an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The US has had a few notable successes, but these have been inconsequential to the final outcome, though they have provided the administration with a political cover to initiate a dialogue with the Taliban. Secretary Clinton’s speech on February 25 at the Asia Society, wherein she signalled that the administration’s “pre-conditions” for talks with the Taliban were actually the desired end results of the process, was an important initiative in this regard.

Obama’s political advisers are urging him to shed off the Afghan albatross, especially with euphoria over Osama’s killing dissipating and the economy showing no signs of recovery, continuing American involvement in the war is becoming increasingly unpopular. Moreover, with Gates on his way out, the Pentagon is less likely to drag its feet on Obama’s strong espousal of a reduced US presence in Afghanistan.

Hopefully, with the US intensifying its search for credible Afghan interlocutors, some rethinking is also taking place in Islamabad. CIA Director Leon Panetta’s visit could have been a good occasion for a ‘reset’ in Pak-US relations, though it appears that the visit regrettably failed to repair damage to relations. Afghan President Karzai’s visit to Islamabad last week did, however, result in a comprehensive exchange, more importantly on the reconciliation process, as indicated by Professor Rabbani’s presence and confirmed by Karzai at the press conference.

These are important developments, but whether the government has the capacity or the will to focus on them is another matter. Recent events, in particular the Abbottabad episode and the PNS Mehran fiasco, have raised questions even about our much vaunted security agencies. It is therefore essential for the government and its institutions to make meaningful contributions to political reconciliation in Afghanistan. This is what this country needs and this is what our closest friends are advocating. Even China, while strongly supportive in public, made known its concerns about recent developments in Pakistan. Russia, too, echoed similar sentiments during President Asif Ali Zardari’s visit, urging a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s thinking.

The Afghan government’s request to the UN for ‘delisting’ 50 prominent Taliban figures from the list of terrorists, as well as the likelihood of separating al Qaeda and Taliban in the so-called ‘1275’ list, should be welcomed by us and not seen as a step that could dilute Pakistan’s influence with the Taliban. Afghanistan’s likely entry as an observer in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization during this week’s summit meeting and Pakistan’s full membership in it should encourage both to enhance their cooperation and understanding on issues relating to peace and security in Afghanistan and in the region.

Henry Kissinger, America’s best known national security expert, in an article in The New York Times last week, admitted that “the American role in Afghanistan is drawing to a close” and that the administration is now engaged in “an internal search for an exit strategy with the emphasis on exit rather than strategy”. He confirmed that the administration had entered into negotiations, under German good-offices, with Mulla Omar’s representatives. After commenting on the dilemmas confronting the US, Kissinger pointed out that “without a sustainable agreement defining Afghanistan’s regional security role, each major neighbour will support rival factions across ancient ethnic and sectarian lines”, which would be “a prescription for wider conflict”. He therefore advocates “a partly regional, partly global diplomatic effort to accompany direct negotiations with the Taliban”. Pakistan should aim to be an active participant and positive contributor to this process.



Published in The Express Tribune, June 17th, 2011.