Cool April: A wet spring baffles the weather machines

More rain expected this month, experts blame global warming.

ISLAMABAD:

Two westerly waves expected to approach the country in the current month will cause more rains in different areas till end of April. Talking to APP, a spokesman of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Monday said that a current western disturbance affecting most parts of the country from Sunday is likely to persist for next 24 to 48 hours.

As different parts of the country received intermittent rains on Monday, the officials forecast a hailstorm in the twin cities. Moreover, weather had remained cloudy in the northern half of the country along with western parts of Balochistan.

The temperature has fallen from two to four degrees Celsius in most parts of the country due to current spell of rains. However, gusty winds and unseasonal rains have cast a bad impact on crops especially wheat which is ready for harvesting, the spokesman said. The harvesting process is likely to start in most parts of Punjab from April13. According to Met Office, more rains are likely in cotton belt which will not be useful for the crops in these areas.

Environmentalists have noted that weather patterns are becoming more extreme and unpredictable because of climatic changes around the globe. Currently the country is experiencing its coldest month of April of the last 20 years. Deputy Director of the World Wildlife Fund, Pakistan, Ejaz Ahmad, while commenting on the changed weather patterns and climatic challenges, said that land use patterns and heavy deforestation in various parts of the country, especially in northern regions, were the main factors for changing weather patterns.

He said, “Due to unprecedented changes in weather patterns, the frequency of cyclones has also increased”. Citing example of frequent cyclones, he said the country had been hit by the Phet Cyclone and the Yemyin Cyclone within the span of few years, while such cyclones used to occur after lapses of decades.

It would be scientifically incorrect to link any single set of events with human-induced climate change, but there was enough evidence to show an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods, droughts and extreme precipitation overall, he said.

Ejaz said, “In fact the floods of the kind that hit Pakistan last year may become more frequent and more intense in the future globally”. He acknowledged that rather unusual monsoon patterns from the Arabian Sea are becoming more frequent and global warming results in catastrophic weather events.

Another Water specialist, Simi Kamal said that rising temperatures hasten the melting of water sources, like Himalayas in the north of Pakistan, which are the world’s third largest snow repository. Kamal said, “Global warming is going much faster, causing catastrophic weather events and I am not sure if this can be stopped now, even if we adapt to the change quickly.” Kamal said that Pakistan’s lack of preparedness has added to the frequency of floods

“Still, there are lessons to be learnt and we need the telemetric system on the Indus River to function that also need to be extended to monitor flood waves in real time,” Kamal said. Realising that a central government cannot do it, the experts said local-level capacity will have to be strengthened to be the first line of defense in providing flood protection and relief.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 12^th, 2011.