A defeat for Mr Modi

The defeat suffered by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the elections held in Bihar, the third-most populous state in the country, is being read as a waning of his power — which may be a premature assessment. He campaigned hard in Bihar but to seemingly little effect, or at least not enough to impress the voters of the state who are heavily fragmented in terms of their electoral loyalties. Caste and feudal support feature large and go back to pre-Partition days, and in an election where local figures are cementing or seeking their place in the political firmament, voters are going to elect those who will have a direct impact on their lives, or so they hope. Mr Modi, effective campaigner that he is, is anything but local to the people of Bihar.

The result is the second defeat in a provincial election for Mr Modi since his accession to power, and is likely to give succour to the many opposition and independent parties, as well as potentially give his opponents within his own party a stick to beat him with. As far as how this might be seen by other countries that have a relationship with India (Mr Modi is soon to visit the UK), this is not likely to affect the geopolitical tectonics or adversely affect trading relationships that are crafted to transcend government changes, but it will dent his image as a rock-solid populist. Populism can be a fickle mistress, and the wave that Mr Modi came to power on is inevitably going to peak and wane, and it will be how he manages a change in the populist sea-state that will determine his longevity. The loss in Bihar means that he may not be able to push forward economic reforms. He will need to win all state elections over the next three years if his party is to gain full control of parliament. If he loses one or more of these, then his brand of right-wing populism may have reached its sell-by date — a determination that will only emerge with the next general election.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 10^th, 2015.

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