Experts raise alarm over gaps in dengue patient figures

Number of cases could be as high as 4,000 if data from private hospitals is added

ISLAMABAD:

Serious discrepancies have emerged in the figures of dengue fever sufferers in Punjab after the provincial health department confirmed that 1,261 people to date have contracted the deadly illness, experts said, citing the health department’s own analysis of the collated data.

This shows the “irresponsible attitude” of the authorities in handling dengue cases, they said.

According to documents available with The Express Tribune, from January this year till August 23 there were 832 confirmed cases of dengue fever. But in the last 10 days the total number of reported cases rose dramatically to 1,261. This means as many as 429 dengue cases suddenly emerged. On an average, 40 people across Punjab are being confirmed for dengue fever every day.

Epidemiologists have termed this outbreak of dengue fever both alarming and worrisome. They believe that dengue cases are probably under reported, pointing out that the Punjab government data only relates to the number of patients confirmed for the disease in public sector hospitals. However, it is estimated that 80 per cent of the population frequents private healthcare set-ups.

“Considering the current trend of cases being reporting in the Punjab province, it is estimated that by including the data from private hospitals the number of people who have been confirmed for the disease could go up by 4,000,” said Dr Anwar Rafay, the assistant professor in epidemiology and biostatistics at Contech School of Public Health, Lahore.

He also said that it is a fact that now prevention of dengue fever is not on Punjab government’s priority list.

Commenting on Punjab health department analysis he said, “It is completely misleading and fails to present true picture of the situation on which planning should be done.”

In the analysis a patient tested positive for the disease has been mentioned in the list of people tested negative for it. Furthermore the analysis also mentioned that some of the patients’ platelet count was recorded at impossibly low rates. Medically speaking, if the platelet count is below 10,000, the patient dies.

Dr Saleem Rana, a vector control expert said, “The case response is zero in Punjab which is one of the major reasons behind the spread of the disease.”

He said since the beginning of the year it was known to everyone in the Punjab health department that there would be an outbreak of the disease this year. However, they did not pay much heed to it.

The Express Tribune tried to contact Adviser to Chief Minister Punjab, Khawaja Salman Rafique, but he was unavailable for comment.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 4^th,  2015.