Net hope and Nawaz Sharif

proceedings suggests that Mian Sahib expects to regenerate the positive and high net hope in a solo flight.

Is Mian Nawaz Sharif sensing the wave that prevailed in 1990 and 1997 again? The question arises in the context of the results of the latest Global Barometer of Hope and Despair survey — an annual end of the year (EOY) survey that has been conducted by the Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research and Gallup International since 1977. The key question asked by the EOY 2010 survey was: Would you say that 2011 will be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or will there be no change? On the whole, the world has not lost hope, but is driven largely by the emerging economies of Latin America and Asia. Pakistan turns out to be a country of despair, not hope, where 34 per cent people expect 2011 to be a year of economic difficulty and only 13 per cent perceive it as a year of prosperity. Pessimists exceed optimists by 21 per cent, giving Pakistan a high negative score on ‘net hope’. However, 37 per cent expected things to remain the same, which again suggests an air of pessimism. In India, by contrast, net hope is over 24 per cent. Pakistan’s score in the past was generally higher than in India.

Now what has this got to do with Mian Nawaz Sharif? Net hope in his second tenure was positive, high and rising. It was 31 per cent in 1997, 32 per cent in 1998 and 49 per cent in 1999. The numbers for his first tenure are not available. But perceptions were much the same. There was a wave of optimism on the economic front. Investors thought there was money to be made. Businessmen were seen discussing future projects. The official policy stance was perceived as business friendly. Ordinary folks hoped there would be jobs. “Animal spirits”, as Lord Keynes — a distinguished economist — would have put it, for capital accumulation were high.

Mian Sahib has kept a safe distance from the game of musical chairs being played since the MQM threatened to quit the ruling alliance. He has also not been part of the endless meetings of the strangest of bedfellows after the exit of Maulana Fazlur Rehman of the JUI. Much against his nature, he has pocketed the insults of being the saviour of a corrupt set- up. There is no evidence of any interest shown by the PML-N in a hurriedly cobbled alliance to topple the government. Nor does it seem interested in an establishment-sponsored takeover. What has not been noticed is its lack of interest in the Namoos-i-Risalat build-up.

All this suggests that Mian Sahib expects to regenerate the positive and high net hope in a solo flight. Negative net hope has, in general, been associated with bad governance. This cannot be any different in Pakistan. Add to it the PPP’s bad-to-average economic performance during its turns in power, and the popular perceptions of a worsening future become stronger. The fifth shuffle in the economic team is not seen to be the last. As net hope continues to plummet, there is an eventual dividend to be made by keeping the merchants of despair in the saddle. Rarely has the art of the possible seen such an optimal mix of principle and power.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 24^th, 2010.