In search of stability

Did JUI-F's pragmatism buckle suddenly, or was it stimulated further into acting 'practically' after the RGST storm.

After the PPP-MQM brawl over target killings in Karachi, another internal coalition rift has widened, this time between the PPP and JUI-F, and the PPP-led government is threatened with a loss of majority in parliament and a possible in-house change of government or a midterm election. Over it all hangs the shadow of a rejectionist opposition front on the reformed general sales tax (RGST) which sharpens the toppling instinct of politicians across the board.

The JUI-F was always uncomfortable with the PPP but Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s pragmatism persuaded the party rejectionists to shore up party strength for another day while the coalition lasted. The Hajj scam would not have undermined this pragmatism had the party rank and file not reacted angrily to the simultaneous sacking of its ministers, Azam Khan Swati and religious affairs minister Hamid Saeed Kazmi, after Swati had levelled charges of corruption at the latter, which the JUI-F had earlier said was the former’s own initiative.

Why did Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s pragmatism buckle suddenly at this juncture? The truth may be that it did not buckle but was stimulated further into acting ‘practically’ after the RGST storm broke out and signals from various other powerful quarters started flying thick and fast. Two players on the stage of Pakistani politics have made their pre-emptive moves on this. The MQM has prepared for mid-term elections; the Jamaat-e-Islami has sent ex-chief Qazi Hussain Ahmad to Fazlur Rahman to persuade him to think about resurrecting the MMA.

The PPP needs 172 seats in the National Assembly to stay in power. It has only 127. It needs the MQM, the ANP and the JUI-F on its side to make up that number. If the MQM doesn’t get what it wants in Sindh it will hold back on its 25 seats. The PML-N is sitting pretty with its 89 seats in the opposition, hurling calls for a long march at the beleaguered government. The other party with a big presence is the PML-Q with 51 seats, but it is subject to internal splintering, which is of help neither to the PPP nor to powers-that-be desiring unity among the ‘less threatening’ elements of parliament. The statement of PML-Q chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, that his party will not bring a vote of no-confidence against the PPP, is hardly credible.

The jury is still out on what the endgame will be. One could surmise that the MQM will play ball after playing hardball, that is, it will want the Sindh home minister to switch off his rhetoric and would like local bodies back under its belt, before it decides to relent. The PML-N is on the warpath, responding to its old toppling instinct which many thought had become watered down with the Charter of Democracy. Recidivism to the days when no one lasted in power for a full term seems to have conquered the landscape.

Presiding over this landscape of turmoil is uncertainty about the permanence of the state. Terrorism and a languishing state sovereignty is informing the psychology of the politician. Peace represents normality and an adherance to civic virtue. Absence of peace brings about conditions of lack of trust that undermine civic virtue. The fluctuating writ of the state may characterise many Third World states, but Pakistan is different from this norm because of the presence of al Qaeda and local non-state actors on its soil. Lack of trust has given rise to corruption because of external insecurity. Security is sought within the country or outside on the basis of wealth. Wealth is supposed to buy security. This phenomenon occurs among politicians who can barely expect to complete their tenure in power before being cut down. In a weak state, wealth comes after the acquisition of the capacity for violence. The capacity for violence creates conditions for power which, in turn, validates acquisition of wealth.

A coalition government means a weak government. In the West, a weak government is actually desired through proportional representation. In Pakistan, it enhances the conditions of the jungle and ensures instability at a time when policies of steadfastness are required.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 16^th, 2010.