Schrödinger’s cat?: Presidential order enmeshes conflict over Senate polls

Upper House elections for tribal representatives remain postponed as deadlock amongst lawmakers persists.

SHABQADAR:

The new presidential decree, revising the election procedure of Federally Administered Tribal Areas candidates for Senate elections, has widened the schism between lawmakers in Fata.

President Mamnoon Hussain issued the order at the 11th hour on Wednesday night, replacing General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s executive order of 2002 and the Statutory Regulatory Order of July 7, 1975.

As per the new presidential ruling, each tribal MNA will have only a single vote to cast under the first-past-to-post system. Interestingly, the math under the new system has become more complex than ever; the Election Commission of Pakistan termed it “vague and self-contradictory” in a notification issued on Friday.



As of now, 11 votes will decide the fate of four seats—an equation that may inadvertently lead to horse-trading.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) lawmakers from the tribal belt are delighted by the move. “The order was issued only after I raised the issue on the floor of the house and boycotted proceedings,” said Bajaur Agency MNA Shahabuddin Khan while speaking to The Express Tribune.

Independent MNA from Kurram Agency Sajid Hussain Turi said the PML-N wants its hegemony over the polls which shall not be tolerated.

Polls cannot be conducted until the prevalent deadlock is resolved. Meetings have been held in this regard as the delay in polls will only lead to further legal complexities. PML-N leaders Amir Muqam and Captain Safdar tried to persuade the independent candidates into an adjustment on Friday. The list of demands tabled by the irked group requires more rounds of negotiations until a deal is finally cut.



The government is trying its best to resolve the conflict before the approaching senate chairman polls on March 12. The ruling party can only bag the chairmanship if it exceeds Pakistan Peoples Party’s count, and the Fata seats might just be the deciding factor.

Although the last minute move was allegedly meant to curb the influence of independent candidates, it has pitched the two sides against each other.

The number game

The 11 lawmakers from Fata are at the moment divided into two camps, six independent candidates and five candidates affiliated to parties—three belonging to PML-N and one from Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl each.

The order was seen as a move to weaken the position of the independent group that had its eyes set on all four seats under the previous system through which each lawmaker had four votes each.

The new ruling will cut their probability of winning down to two seats, leading to a positive-sum game amongst the two rivals. Earlier, the ballot of candidates affiliated with parties would have borne no fruit as the independent group would have swept the entire election with a clear majority.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 8^th, 2015.