Pakistan and India: Re-engaging rekindles hope

Regrettably, both countries are moving in the opposite direction, we only hope that this visit will reverse the trend

It has been one of the great tragedies of Partition that successive leaders of India and Pakistan have not risen to the challenge of shedding the burden of history. South Asia has mostly remained in a time warp. Meanwhile, the world has moved on and regional integration is now an established global trend. There was hope that the present post-Partition leaders, Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi, with comfortable electoral mandates will reverse the trend and build borders with bridges.



Realising there are clear potential benefits for both countries, Nawaz Sharif made some bold moves in that direction, but stands frustrated by Modi’s response that he can pursue his economic and strategic goals independent of India’s relations with Islamabad.

It is too early to assess if the current visit of the Indian foreign secretary to Pakistan signals a softening of India’s position. In all probability, it has been dictated by the reality that cutting off all lines of communication has only led to worsening of relations without giving any political dividend. President Barack Obama’s subtle persuasion of Modi to re-engage was in all likelihood another compelling factor. Initially, state elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) were an obstacle to resuming dialogue, as Modi, for domestic consumption, wanted to look tough towards Pakistan. But now, one of the conditions set by Chief Minister Mufti Sayeed of the PDP for forming a coalition government with the BJP is that the back channel with Pakistan should be resumed. His other condition was that Article 370 be retained. Interestingly, there is a school of thought that the high 70 percentage of votes cast in the valley were also meant to keep the BJP out of power. In previous elections, the National Conference and later the Congress tried to link Muslim and Hindu interests in their election manifestos but this time the BJP fought elections in Jammu on a purely communal basis and locked up several Kashmiri leaders during this period. With this background, alliance of the PDP and the BJP could at best be considered an attempt at consensus-building.

The Indian view is that the composite dialogue has lost its relevance and a new framework for future engagement with Pakistan should be mutually worked out. One option is to revive elements of the Lahore process or repackage it, taking into consideration the new objective realities. Moreover, if finding a resolution to the J&K problem is difficult it can wait, but Siachen and Sir Creek — the ‘low-hanging fruits’ — are relatively more amenable to resolution. The momentum generated by this could be transformational. Former army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, after the tragic glacier landslide in which an entire battalion was buried in snow, had suggested the withdrawal of forces from Siachen. It is opposition by the Indian military that was the stumbling block.

It is unfortunate that India-Pakistan relations reflect a history of lost opportunities. Manmohan Singh wanted to move forward on bilateral relations despite his own tragic memories of Partition in which his family had suffered. But he lacked the political power and Sonia Gandhi, with her foreign background, could not muster the political will to engage substantially on resolution of issues.

Modi perhaps has the best credentials to make a breakthrough with Pakistan if ever he decides to do so. He represents the right-wing Hindu nationalists’ thinking and enjoys an unchallenged position in his party. But Modi’s knowledge and interest in foreign affairs is limited and he is on a learning curve. In matters of foreign affairs and in relations with Pakistan, his key advisers, on whom he has implicit trust, are National Security Adviser Ajit Kumar Doval and Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. For this reason the foreign secretary’s visit to Pakistan is important.

Governing India, too, is different from his previous experience of ruling Gujarat. No doubt, Modi was very successful in lifting the economy of Gujarat, but it is a homogeneous state, highly urbanised with a large successful business community. On the other hand, India is diverse, huge and both urban and rural with enormous domestic and foreign challenges.

There is a national consensus among Pakistan’s political parties to have good relations with India. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has repeatedly stressed cooperation and a constructive relationship but it could give way to frustration if the Line of Control (LoC) remains volatile and relations fail to improve. Sustained volatility on the LoC and on the Working Boundary is incomprehensible and is clearly not in Pakistan’s or even in India’s interest. Firing on the LoC at this time distracts and dilutes Pakistan’s efforts and resources away from the western border and from its internal fight against terrorism. The question is what does India gain by distracting Pakistan from its primary mission? Contrast this behaviour with China’s in which there are lessons for India. It had short wars and lingering border disputes with Russia, Vietnam and India but all these borders have remained peaceful and trade and commerce with China is flourishing. India has nearly $70 billion trade with China and it is growing. We have to be mindful that strong lobbies of investors and business magnates are forces that modulate strategic rivalry. Besides, it does not make India look good when a country much smaller in size and national power is standing up to its belligerence and giving a befitting reply.

If we were to achieve peace and tranquillity on the LoC and on the Working Boundary, enhance opportunities for trade and commerce and liberalise the visa regime with India, it would create an environment for addressing the hard issues. Once there is progress on issues, the final long-term goal to move towards connectivity between South Asia and Central and West Asia can be realised. It is only then that the centrality and importance of Pakistan as a regional hub would emerge. But to achieve this goal we need a different mindset that requires shedding the historical baggage of animosity. Regrettably, both countries are moving in just the opposite direction and we only hope that this visit will reverse the trend.

Published in The Express Tribune, March  4^th,  2015.

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