Interest rate hike causes fresh worries for businesses

Decline in investment and increase in bad loans feared.


Farhan Zaheer November 30, 2010

KARACHI: The increase of 50 basis points (bps) in the discount rate by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has caused renewed worries for the business community, which considers that a continuous rise in interest rate will increase non-performing loans and discourage fresh investment.

The discount rate has now reached 14 per cent from 13.5 per cent after the SBP announced the increase on Monday. Giving the reason, the SBP said that the step will help reduce stubborn inflation, which is one of the major concerns of the monetary policy.

Chairman Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA), Saleem Parekh, was upset over the continuous rise in interest rate, saying the industry could not bear this burden any more. “The government is not taking important economic decisions in the right perspective. Even if the industrialists continue with businesses in present circumstances, they will invest nothing more,” he added.

The Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST) is likely to be implemented soon, which will exacerbate the problems of businessmen, he said, adding exporters will have to wait for their tax refunds for months and resultantly, they will further limit investments.

Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (Kati) chairman  Johar Ali Qandhari, said this increase has come at a time when local industries are already under stress due to energy shortage and high cost of production. “I don’t think the government knows the ground realities for businesses,” he said.

“This is the final nail in the coffin of industries,” Qandhari added. Businesses will be badly affected with this development and non-performing loans, which have already touched Rs500 billion owing to high mark-up rates, will also increase, he said.

MK International CEO Younus Khamisani said the rate increase will simply add to the woes of the business community. “The SBP may be weighing its options, but one fact that it will have to acknowledge is that this decision is 100 per cent counterproductive for industrial activity.”

“Every day we learn about a company closing down its business or some factory shutting down operations. No industry could survive with such high interest rate,” Khamisani added. He went on to say that with the deteriorating law and order and high cost of production, nobody is going to invest in Pakistan. “When existing industries are finding it difficult to survive, who will come and bring new investment to the country,” he pointed out.

He said businessmen are also unsure about the RGST regime and the government has also not shown any interest in taking them on board over the last six months.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 30th, 2010.

COMMENTS (3)

Kashif | 13 years ago | Reply Saima How will raising the interest rate help reign in inflation when SBP itself is saying that this inflation is being driven by increased government borrowing which is inelastic to interest rate hikes. Raising interest rates is a counter productive exercise when the biggest government expenditure is markup servicing and this will only increase the budget deficit and cause further government borrowing. The only beneficiary of rising interest rates will be banks who will get a larger spread. SBP is actually not regulating monetary policy but just ensuring that the biggest banks get their profits further inflated.
Saima Khan | 13 years ago | Reply With inflation at 15%, the policy rate is still NEGATIVE in inflation-adjusted terms. This whining by the business community is tiresome, dishonest and self-serving. @Asfandyar. The SBP is very much in touch with "reality". The reality, Sir, is galloping inflation now three years in double-digits and likely to endue for another two before it is tamed. That is the main reason for rising poverty. Even the core trimmed rate of inflation is 12.5%! That's the reality. Yes there have to be spending checks and hard ceilings are being applied to provincial over-drafts. The SBP will continue to bounce checks. The RGST is crucial on the revenue side. The fuss is about the 700 exemptions being removed and a tax on agriculture inputs! Otherwise everyone knows that a single 15% rate brings DOWN prices across a broad range of goods and services which were being taxed at between 17-25% under the old GST.
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