Appraisal: Moody’s cuts Russia debt rating

WASHINGTON: Moody’s cut Russia’s credit rating to one step above junk level Friday and warned the country was under review for a further downgrade. Moody’s said that the plunge in oil prices and in the ruble would further erode Russia’s economic growth potential and that it had concerns about the government’s financial strength. The grade was cut by one notch to Baa3 from Baa2. Baa3 is the lowest level for “investment grade” sovereign bonds; another cut would take it into “speculative” or junk bond grade. “The severe–and likely to be sustained–oil price shock, alongside Russian borrowers’ highly restricted international market access due to ongoing sanctions, is undermining economic fundamentals and increasing financial stresses on both the public and private sectors,” Moody’s said. It forecast the Russian economy would contract this year by 5.5% and another 3.0% in 2016, “bringing real growth over the 10 years through 2018 to virtually zero.”

Published in The Express Tribune, January 18^th, 2015.

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