There are four major features of Pakistan’s current security and diplomatic profile: a forceful security operation in North Waziristan by the army; the targeting of all kinds of Taliban groups and their allies, including non-Pakistani militants based in the tribal areas; efforts to expand diplomatic interaction at the global level; and a stalemate in Pakistan-India relations.
In early 2014, the army authorities came to the conclusion that the Pakistani Taliban and their allies, as well as non-Pakistani militants based in the tribal areas, had to be knocked out of their safe haven. However, the hesitancy on the civilian government’s part delayed the initiation of the military operation in the tribal areas. It was in mid-June 2014 that the army authorities decided on their own to go ahead for a full-fledged military action in North Waziristan. Later, some operations were conducted in other tribal agencies. The civilian government was left with no option but to support them. The military operation that involved the army, the air force and the paramilitary forces has been a success to the extent that it has dislodged the Pakistani Taliban and their allies from their safe havens in North Waziristan, destroyed their weapons storage, IED manufacturing arrangements and training centres. This has drastically weakened the capacity of the Pakistani Taliban and their affiliates to strike back with force.
The current military operation in North Waziristan and the adjacent tribal agencies is targeting all kinds of Pakistani and non-Pakistani militant groups. Pakistan’s army chief has repeatedly maintained that the ongoing security operation is being conducted against all groups in a non-discriminatory manner. The empirical evidence available so far shows that the army has targeted all militants — Pakistani, Afghan and others.
The security operation in the tribal areas has enabled the Pakistan military (especially the army) to rehabilitate its reputation as a professional force at the international level. This has negated the widely shared perception at the global level that the army top command was selective in taking tough action against militant groups because it was said to be cultivating some of them. The non-discriminatory military operation strengthened Pakistan’s diplomatic position at the global level. Pakistan’s traditional allies, like the US, China, Great Britain and the European states, realised that the military has the capacity to deal effectively with the militants that employ violence to pursue their religious-political agendas. Therefore, they began to look towards the Pakistan military as integral to promoting peace and stability in Afghanistan. The US is now seeking the cooperation of the Pakistan military for helping Afghanistan’s new government to cope with the challenge of the Afghan Taliban.
The new Afghan government under President Ashraf Ghani has adopted a friendly and conciliatory disposition towards Pakistan because it is appreciative of the military operation in North Waziristan. The US and Afghanistan now seek Pakistan’s cooperation for addressing the challenge of the Afghan Taliban. Afghanistan and the US also want Pakistan to encourage the Afghan Taliban leaders, especially those maintaining links in Pakistan, to engage in a dialogue for political accommodation with the Kabul government. Pakistan is expected to extend such cooperation.
Pakistan wants Afghanistan and the US to take a firm punitive action against the leadership of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan currently based in Afghanistan. It also seeks to build military-to-military cooperation with Afghanistan for controlling unauthorised movement of people and goods across the Pakistan-Afghan border. Pakistan is also looking forward to increasing professional and training interaction between the two militaries. The indications are that Pakistan and Afghanistan will increase their cooperation for countering terrorism and security management in 2015.
Another recent diplomatic gain is the increased prospect of cooperation between Pakistan and Russia. In November, Russia and Pakistan signed a framework agreement for cooperation in several fields, including defence, security and counterterrorism. Pakistan must avail of the latest Russian offer to expand bilateral cooperation and trade so as to extend the scope of its diplomacy. Russia is expected to supply military helicopters and some other security equipment to strengthen Pakistan’s capacity for countering terrorism by the middle of 2015.
Pakistan’s relations have stalemated with the new Indian government led by Narendra Modi because of the latter’s emphasis on ultra-nationalism with a strong imprint of a hardline vision for a strident role by India. This policy is meant to strengthen the BJP’s position in the domestic context by showing that it can play tough with Pakistan. Therefore, there are little chances of a normal working interaction with India in the near future. Pakistan should freeze its relations with India at the current level and wait till the Modi government’s ultra-nationalism subsides. Meanwhile, Pakistan should expand its diplomatic interaction with Russia and other countries to increase its positive relevance within the international system. This will also contribute to countering India’s belligerent disposition.
The year 2015 offers new opportunities to Pakistan to turn the global and regional systems in its favour or at least neutralise anti-Pakistan propaganda. The new year can be a game-changer for Pakistan, provided its security policies continue to reflect the current realism and professionalism, improve internal security on a priority basis, make a realistic determination of long-term national goals and how to achieve them in an interdependent international system.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 15th, 2014.
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The term propaganda implies malicious lies .. yet the article lists nothing but steps taken by Pakistan to correct factual problems that the World has been complaining about for many years. Kudos for Pakistan for finally taking positive steps .. now focus on the reasons it took so long to implement and quit blaming the outside World.
@abreez: please explain how Chinese travel by road/rail will benefit Pakistan?
Very favorable time for Pakistan to build strong relations with Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asian states, Russia and Africa. There are 2800,000 Chinese are living in Europe, Africa and Middle East and by giving these people a chance to visit china by road, we can create opportunities for Pakistani people. In 2013, 57,000,000 tourists came to China and 97,000,000 Chinese tourists visited other countries, if only 50% use rail and road communication then he who know economics know the impact on Pakistani economy. Oil price slump daunting for Iran's economy: expert TEHRAN, Dec. 14 (Xinhua) -- Recent global oil price drop gives tough days for Iran's economy that has already been hammered by a host of domestic and international factors, an Iranian economic expert told Xinhua on Sunday. "The fall in oil price that we face is a very big problem," Dr. Saeed Leylaz said, adding that "40 percent decease in oil price means that hard currency income of the country (in the following year) will be less than one fourth in the year 2011." In 2011, Iran's income from oil exports hit some 120 billion U.S. dollars, the biggest in the history of the country, but it will be less than 30 billion dollars in 2015, Leylaz said. Over the past months, crude prices gradually declined to slightly over 60 dollars a barrel, from some 100 dollars in June, amid worries that global supplies surpassed demand as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not agree to cut its output recently. Iran, once the second biggest oil exporter of the block, failed to persuade the November meeting of the OPEC to cut its output in an attempt to rebound the market prices. "We will not have enough purchase power for more than 50 percent of Iranian people ... and then the demand will be freezed, which is very important to the economy," Leylaz said. Besides, the drop in oil revenues will have its dire impact on the budget of government for projects, which is crucial for creating jobs and economic growth, he said.He said the government may have to adopt very tough monetary policy, abide by rigid financial discipline, cut expenses, and increase tax as well as prices. He said the government may have to adopt very tough monetary policy, abide by rigid financial discipline, cut expenses, and increase tax as well as prices. "We will have more pressure on poor people," he explained.
It is funny when analysts of a State, which itself is struggling to stabilize, are talking about stabilizing other States.
Provided miscreants like Imran Khan stop trying to topple the Government and accept democracy.
Looks like you want to start the New Year with the old hubris!
how was the hush there in civilian govt about security and foreign policy, what was pitfall and could we expect that civilian govt be proceeded without any security strategy and without any foreign minster,but it happened in day light and was misfortune for Pakistan that no integrated security measures and policy could be made and even finance was negated for this dire issue but metro like were operated at the expense of compromise on very security measures which is also co relate to diplomatic strategy in region,but intentions were at disparity with reality and doable rather Musharraf was being tried to make a check on security forces, now at last thanks to army for taking security and foreign strategy in their own hands, and civilian govt considered it better to surrender security and foreign policy at behest of its longevity.
Whatever Pakistan do it will be spoiled by the so called non state actors. Unless Pakistan get rids of the non state actor from its soil it can't gain any confidence from international arena