‘Megaprojecting’ out of economic difficulties

Pakistan could add development of waterways to the megaprojects to which Beijing has committed itself


Shahid Javed Burki November 30, 2014

Given the present leadership’s interest in megaprojects and China’s willingness to invest in large undertakings, I would like to put forward a proposal that may help revive the country’s economy and, at the same time, bring about a significant structural change. I would suggest massive investments in developing the country’s river and canals into waterways. In order to make my point, I will start by referring to an interesting recent work by Peter Zeihan titled The Accidental Superpower. As the book’s title suggests, it is about some of the inherent advantages that made it possible for the United States to remain the world’s dominant economy for more than a century. What helped the country in a significant way are its rivers.

Civilisations have always flourished around rivers. It is 12 times cheaper to transport goods by river than by land. It is especially advantageous if bulk commodities can be transported for export over the waterways to the sea.

Two of the three conditions that contribute to the development of an extensive system of waterways exists in Pakistan. It has a large system of rivers with a total length of 4,000 kilometres. The Indus Waters Treaty has further improved the irrigation network. The approach was to build ‘link canals’ to transport water from the western part of the system to those in the east. There are now 10 link canals with a total length of 800 kilometres. This has increased the potential length of what could be a national waterway to more than 5,000 kilometres.

The second criterion is also fulfilled by Pakistan in that it has the largest contiguous irrigated system in the world. Fed by the Indus River System, this area covers 31 million hectares of land most of which is devoted to the production of cash crops. Most of the output is marketed, sometimes over long distances. Some agricultural commodities also enter international trade. Pakistan, for instance, is one of the world’s largest exporters of rice — by far the largest for the high quality basmati variety. The country’s competiveness would improve immeasurably if these bulk commodities were moved over rivers rather than over land — by road or rail. The only condition Pakistan does not have is an extensive network of ports to connect the river system to the sea.

Why has Pakistan not developed an extensive system of waterways given its favourable environment? The answer lies in the way the irrigation infrastructure was developed over time. Much of the irrigation system was built by the British rulers as part of their effort to solve the problem of recurrent famines in the eastern part of their Indian domain. Importing grain to provide the needed food when shortages occurred in Bengal, Bihar, Assam and Orissa was an expensive proposition. The cost-conscious British administration chose to develop the vast Indus plane as India’s granary. Not with enough rainfall, this plane could produce only if it was supplied with irrigation water. This was done by the construction of a system of barrages that diverted water into canals. Consequently, some 18 barrages — six on the Indus, five on the Chenab, three each on the Jhelum and the Sutlej and one on the Ravi — cut the river system, making it unfit for long-distance navigation. It is not surprising that the British chose to move the surplus food grains the Indus plane began to produce by road and rail rather than by river.

Having turned to the Chinese to help the country by investing in the development of physical infrastructure, Pakistan could add development of waterways to the megaprojects to which Beijing has committed itself. The Chinese would be the ideal partner for developing this particular system of communication. The ancient Grand Canal was a major source of commerce in the densely-populated parts of the country. In developing its own rivers for irrigation and power, the Chinese have spent considerable amount of money to ensure that navigation was not interfered with.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 1st, 2014.

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COMMENTS (10)

Yo2Da2 | 9 years ago | Reply

@Yo2Da2: I did not mean drastically "curbing" water conservation. I meant the opposite. Sorry.

Yo2Da2 | 9 years ago | Reply

@abreez: The water problem is due to unchecked population growth which negates any progress in water conservation projects. Both - drastically curbing population and water conservation - should be the highest priority. (In 1969, Biologist Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University wrote a widely quoted book The Population Bomb. While people cite the scientific progress in growing crops to feed the hungry as "destroying" the book's underlying thesis, the basic warning of the book still applies. Our planet is in die straits because of the population AND lifestyle pressures. Earth with one or two billion people would have been and would be better off with overall a better quality of life for all of Planet Earth's living inhabitants and life-giving and life-sustaining resources. India will have - shudder!!! - 1.7 billion people before the population stabilizes and starts to decline. Pakistan's population will continue to grow apace in the same time period (500 million) - and because of much higher fertility rates, it won't stabilize for some time after that. Education and empowerment of women in South Asia should be given a high priority, too, as educated women have fewer children, as studies from around the world have shown. Long before we saw this problem, there was a novel in the 1970s which imagined how impoverished people from "third world" countries would start migrating in huge numbers in boats to rich countries. That has proven to be prescient!

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