Around the time Operation Zarb-e-Azb was being launched, the population of North Waziristan was officially estimated at no more than 700,000. But the number of displaced persons that arrived at the internally displaced persons’camps had exceeded one million by the second week of the military campaign. This is an abnormally large percentage of error between the official estimate of the population in this minuscule part of the country and the actual number that is yet to be estimated with any degree of accuracy. Just imagine, the horrendous possibilities that we would be facing if it were to transpire at some future date that a similar percentage of error had already rendered the official estimates of the country’s population of 180 million inaccurate, by say more than 20 million. If true, this would in turn render inaccurate in the same vast degree every important official statistic based on which our officials are making plans for meeting our current and future demands for our basic and not so basic needs.
So, the immediate challenge facing the government is to hold the much delayed census at the earliest. This will enable the government to calculate, with a degree of accuracy, the population growth rate (which currently is officially estimated at around 2.1 per cent) and the fertility rate (officially estimated to be 4.1 births per woman) both of which are currently lagging behind the data for the same, in all South Asian countries except Afghanistan.
Indeed, the possibility of under-estimation of both, the official population growth and fertility rates, cannot be ruled out in view of the presumed under-estimation of the country’s population by the government. That is, perhaps, why it is becoming increasingly difficult for Pakistan to make the most of its available resources. As a consequence, the very fabric of our society is facing a serious threat with the writ of the state seemingly vanishing rapidly.
While attempts are being made to gather the accurate number of heads that need to be fed, clothed and housed within the resources available to the nation, it is also as much important at the same time to simultaneously mount a nation-wide campaign to improve the quality of life of each of our citizens. Education and health are considered to be the two most important ingredients for enriching the quality of an individual’s life. That is why developed societies spend so much on health and education. And these two social instruments also contribute decisively towards spreading awareness about affordable size of the family and how to use healthcare to keep it within the limits of the resources available to maintain an acceptable quality of life. The Population Council of Pakistan has estimated that only 35.4 per cent of women in the country are currently practising contraception and that more than 20 per cent of married women want to practise contraception to space out birth or limit their family size but are unable to do so. This is mainly because of widespread illiteracy, cultural taboos and inaccessibility to high quality family planning or birth spacing services. Also, there appears to be some kind of averseness on the part of successive governments, since General Zia’s days towards the matter of population planning. This needs to be reversed, with the current government and its successors making a commitment to treat this matter as number one priority of the nation, following up with setting in place a strong family planning programme and increasing contraceptive prevalence rates. Due consideration should also be given to the sensible suggestion that the population planning department should be merged with the health ministry. But the government alone would not be able to do the needful with any degree of success. Civil society, the private sector and the media, especially the broadcast media, also need to join the effort wholeheartedly. All private maternity homes and clinics, as well as all big private hospitals, should set up a population planning unit on their premises as it is the duty of all private commercial enterprises, under what is called the corporate social responsibility principle, to protect the interest of society at large. And the private broadcast media too, under the same principle, should broadcast regular programmes, promoting population planning as a public service.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 12th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (9)
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We absolutely can not grow forever, limits will be reached at some point: http://lofalexandria.com/2012/12/limits-we-cannot-grow-forever/
To put Pakistan's population growth in perspective, one must look at the populations of West Pakistan, East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), and India in 1947 and today. West Pakistan had 32.5 million people then and has 180 million people today. Bangladesh had 42 million people then and has 157 million today. India had 330 million then and has 1.25 billion today. One can say that Bangladesh, like Pakistan a Muslim majority country, with its small land area (one sixth of what Pakistan has) had no choice but to curtail its population. But Pakistan has grown faster (roughly 6 times) than India's population (roughly 4 times) in the past 67 years. (The Muslim population growth in India has been much higher than those of non-Muslims - representing 10 per cent in 1947 and 15 per cent today.) None of these South Asian countries can afford any more growth as the natural environment - land, climate, water - is under great stress and is way past its carrying capacity.
@asif: Economic survey is probably underestimating fertility rate just as the population is rouinely trotted out as 10 million while it most likely has crossed 200 million. That can make per capita GDP appear artificially high by artificially reducing the denominator. Why has a census nt been conducted in 16 years?
@Zafar: 2014 economic survey shows fertility rate to be 3.2 not 4.1.
35.4% women use contraceptives. Why is the responsibility only on women? What about male contraceptives? Or is it too much to ask for in a male dominated society?
Dear Sir, After 18 amendment, the subject of 'population welfare and planning' was devolved to the provinces. Now there can be no national policy on this crucial issue. And no province will enact any meaningful family planning policy as they want to keep up their demographic ratio vis other provinces.
Our fertility rate is 4.1 births per woman. This frightening number should give us pause for thought. Our illiterate politicians and bureaucrats just don't understand the power of compound growth. I just cannot imagine the hellish life in a Pakistan with double the population. Where will we get the extra electric power stations, schools, houses. We don't have enough electricity even now.
A counter argument to your suggestions appears in what you yourself are saying. You said developed countries spend a lot on health and education. The keyword here is developed. While spending on education is essential if we want to make progress, there is no reason a country as financially constricted as Pakistan should be providing an extensive healthcare program.
Children are a gift from Allah!